295 Williams Rd · Guyton, GA 31312

$279,996

4 bd · 3.0 ba · — sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LOT 3 SIT ON 1 ACRE!!! WILL GO VA AND FHA ! Don't miss out on this Charming NEW, ENERGY EFFICIENT 4 bedroom / 3-bathroom home that HAS IT ALL!!! Open and inviting floor plan, elegant white cabinetry, upgraded lighting fixtures and recessed lighting. Complete modern home essentials with a comfortable layout. Double vanity in master bathroom with a tub/shower. Brand new appliances! Home has a 1-year manufacture warranty. VISIT the property today. Seller is a licensed Realtor in GA. Exterior photos enhanced for lawn purposes. Homes qualify for FHA and VA loans with a permanent foundation. Pictures of Model Home and represent similar fixtures and color options

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.6% in Guyton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Guyton Elementary School (math 45% / reading 35%, grade F, #427 of 1,228 statewide, top 35%, 739 students, 54% FRL); Effingham County Middle School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #155 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 1,064 students, 52% FRL); Effingham County High School (math 28% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 424 statewide, top 37%, 2,108 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Effingham County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 400 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,971 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.51%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
540 Brogdon Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,316	2mo	$314,000	$239	64
538 4th St Ext Ext	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,820	2mo	$275,000	$151	55
900 Brogdon Rd	0.61mi	4/4.0	3,346	6mo	$925,000	$276	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-30,721
• Equity at exit: $41,748

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-7,771
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31312

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $279,996

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $423	-5% $326	+0% $229	+5% $133	+10% $36
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $121	+0% $229	+5% $338	+10% $446
Rate	-1.0pp $370	-0.5pp $301	base $229	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,999
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
131 Freesia Dr Springfield, GA	4.0	2.5	1930	$2,275	$1.18	45d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $279,996 Under Contract 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,996 New 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,996 New 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,996 New 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,996 New 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,996 New 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,996 New 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on marketlisting id $279,996 New 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,996 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $279,996 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,997 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $279,997 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricestatusdays on market $279,998 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    price $281,999
15. 2026-04-03
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-03
    price $282,000
17. 2026-04-02
    price $279,983
18. 2026-04-01
    price $279,984
19. 2026-03-31
    price $279,985
20. 2026-03-30
    price $279,986
21. 2026-03-26
    price $279,988
22. 2026-03-25
    price $279,989
23. 2026-03-24
    price $279,990
24. 2026-03-24
    price $279,991
25. 2026-03-21
    price $279,992
26. 2026-03-20
    price $279,994
27. 2026-03-19
    price $279,996
28. 2026-03-17
    price $2,799,965
29. 2026-03-17
    price $279,996
30. 2026-03-10
    listed $279,997 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,630
• − Management: −$2,630
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$1,813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$435
• After-tax cash flow: $3,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This charming, energy-efficient home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a comfortable layout. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value-adding improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — A small outdoor seating area can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a small outdoor storage shed — A small outdoor storage shed can increase the home's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — A small outdoor seating area can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor storage shed — A small outdoor storage shed can increase the home's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham County
• NCES district ID: 1301980
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,503
• Composite: 42.56/100
• National rank: #3195
• State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

Livability — Guyton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #9058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Effingham County · 68,439 people
• City population: 25,991
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,991
• Household income: $101,750
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 97.0

Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,399 people
• By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
• By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
• By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 205.9899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $281,999 HABR
• 2026-04-03 Pending — HABR
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $282,000 HABR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $279,983 HABR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $279,984 HABR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $279,985 HABR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $279,986 HABR
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $279,988 HABR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $279,989 HABR
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $279,990 HABR
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $279,991 HABR
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $279,992 HABR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $279,994 HABR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $279,996 HABR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $2,799,965 HABR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $279,996 HABR
• 2026-03-10 Listed $279,997 HABR