5282 Grove Mill Loop · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$444,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 317 Days on market

Built 2022 5,698 sqft lot Est $543k · 18% under $268/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience refined Lakewood Ranch living at 5282 Grove Mill Loop, where timeless design meets modern convenience in the prestigious Solera community. This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence showcases a thoughtfully crafted open floor plan, enhanced by plantation shutters, soft natural light, and a seamless flow that invites both relaxation and entertaining. The chef’s kitchen opens gracefully to the dining and living areas, creating an ideal space for hosting memorable gatherings. The spacious primary bedroom offers a serene retreat, while additional bedrooms provide comfort and versatility for family or guests. Premium upgrades include garage door insulation for year-round efficiency, a d

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Proximity to dining
• Screened-in patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• SCREENED-IN PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• PROXIMITY TO DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total building area listed as 2,751; Living area listed as 2,056
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Icon Management; Monthly HOA fee: $268; Community pool; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Southeast facing; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block, stone and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder model: Lantana; Built on lot sized about 0.13 acre
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Vinyl fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($763/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $427k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $392k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1164 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $391,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.61%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $542,784
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17719 Cantarina Cv	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,045 (-0%)	1mo	$460,000	$225	75
17759 Cantarina Cv	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,045 (-0%)	4mo	$430,000	$210	68
16714 Savory Mist Cir	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,139 (+4%)	3mo	$540,000	$252	66
17601 Hickok Belt Loop	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,061 (+0%)	4mo	$830,000	$403	65
17415 Harvest Moon Way	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,846 (-10%)	2mo	$413,000	$224	64
17416 Hickok Belt Loop	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,207 (+7%)	1mo	$985,000	$446	64
17022 Cresswind Ter	0.21mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,318 (+13%)	0mo	$690,000	$298	62
17744 Savory Mist Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,890 (-8%)	1mo	$615,000	$325	52
17252 Savory Mist Cir	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,193 (+7%)	1mo	$614,999	$280	52
4711 Winsome Way	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,337 (+14%)	1mo	$564,999	$242	48
17248 Savory Mist Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,890 (-8%)	3mo	$498,549	$264	43
17146 Savory Mist Cir	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,337 (+14%)	3mo	$592,044	$253	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-80,358
• Equity at exit: $66,336

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-112,310
• Equity at exit: $38,467

Cash invested: $124,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1164
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,333
• Tax from tax record: −$527 /mo · $6,320/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$268
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$898
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,194

Max offer price $444,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $315	-5% $190	+0% $64	+5% $-62	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-105	+0% $64	+5% $232	+10% $401
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $177	base $64	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,225
• Closing costs: $13,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5304 Grove Mill Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2056	$3,200	$1.56	25d	1	0.02mi
16464 Whale Grey Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$5,000	$2.05	25d	1	0.27mi
17220 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,800	$1.53	25d	1	0.31mi
17419 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,595	$1.27	18d	1	0.34mi
17467 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$12,500	$5.56	25d	1	0.47mi
17710 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,500	$1.27	25d	1	0.50mi
17525 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2250	$7,800	$3.47	25d	1	0.53mi
5528 Arnie Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2872	$10,000	$3.48	25d	1	0.53mi
17605 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,500	$1.71	25d	1	0.54mi
17630 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,550	$1.36	25d	1	0.60mi
5507 Arnie Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2815	$10,500	$3.73	25d	1	0.60mi
15950 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	25d	1	0.61mi
15934 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,900	$2.05	25d	1	0.66mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	13d	1	0.68mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	25d	1	0.68mi
16020 Sunny Day Dr Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$3,500	$2.48	25d	1	0.68mi
5319 White Sand Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,850	$2.01	25d	1	0.70mi
17915 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,999	$1.47	25d	1	0.73mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,000	$1.27	5d	1	0.78mi
18006 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2674	$3,400	$1.27	13d	1	0.79mi
5805 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$4,250	$2.01	18d	1	0.80mi
5316 Crystal Harbor Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	23d	1	0.82mi
16426 Paynes Mill Dr Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2419	$3,950	$1.63	21d	1	0.83mi
5815 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2108	$3,500	$1.66	25d	1	0.84mi
5831 Wake Forest Run #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,995	$4.02	25d	1	0.84mi
15716 Barefoot Beach Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2027	$7,500	$3.70	25d	1	0.85mi
5915 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2108	$4,800	$2.28	25d	1	0.86mi
5921 Wake Forest Run Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$3,500	$1.96	25d	1	0.87mi
15835 Tradewind Ter Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2356	$9,850	$4.18	25d	1	0.90mi
18121 Metado Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,900	$1.59	25d	1	0.91mi
5225 Blue Crush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$5,000	$2.70	25d	1	0.92mi
5161 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$4,000	$1.82	25d	1	0.96mi
5720 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	25d	1	1.00mi
6113 Cessna Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2248	$6,000	$2.67	25d	1	1.00mi
5537 Tidal Breeze Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	25d	1	1.01mi
5210 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,975	$1.81	25d	1	1.01mi
5907 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2246	$6,800	$3.03	25d	1	1.03mi
16717 Bwana Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2248	$6,000	$2.67	25d	1	1.04mi
16808 Bwana Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2006	$5,500	$2.74	25d	1	1.04mi
5725 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$12,000	$6.49	25d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $268 · $3,216/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $444,900 Active 317 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $444,900 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $444,900 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $444,900 Active 312 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $444,900 Active 311 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $444,900 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $444,900 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $444,900 Active 306 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $444,900 Active 305 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $444,900 Active 304 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $444,900 Active 303 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $444,900 Active 299 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $444,900 Active 298 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $444,900 Active 297 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $444,900 Active 296 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $444,900
17. 2026-03-25
    price $449,000
18. 2026-02-24
    price $459,000
19. 2025-10-06
    price $469,000
20. 2025-08-08
    listed $474,900 Active
21. 2025-07-31
    historical
22. 2025-05-07
    price $479,900
23. 2025-05-02
    status Active
24. 2025-05-02
    price $484,900
25. 2025-05-02
    historical
26. 2025-05-01
    listed $484,900 Active
27. 2025-04-24
    historical
28. 2025-01-09
    listed $494,900 Active
29. 2024-10-31
    status Active
30. 2024-10-31
    status Pending
31. 2024-10-31
    status Active
32. 2024-10-31
    status Pending
33. 2024-10-31
    historical
34. 2024-10-25
    price $485,000
35. 2024-07-25
    price $489,900
36. 2024-07-11
    price $499,000
37. 2024-06-19
    listed $509,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,320 · $527/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,320 · $527/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,921
• − Property taxes: −$6,320
• − Insurance: −$2,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,103
• − Management: −$4,103
• − HOA: −$3,216
• − Depreciation: −$12,943
• Taxable loss: −$6,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,569
• After-tax cash flow: $2,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $444,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $449,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $459,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $469,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Listed $474,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $479,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $484,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listed $484,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-09 Listed $494,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $485,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $489,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-11 Price Changed $499,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-19 Listed $509,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+50.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,320 · -8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.