156 Hardscrabble Rd · North Creek, NY 12853

$288,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,415 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 1870 Good condition 1.57 ac lot $204/sqft · 30% below area Est $409k · 30% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on 1.57 acres just 8 miles from Gore Mountain, this one-of-a-kind ski retreat blends rustic charm with everyday comfort -- everything you need for the perfect mountain getaway. With four bedrooms and one and a half baths, there's plenty of room for the whole crew. The first-floor primary bedroom makes coming and going a breeze, while the generous dining room sets the scene for long, lively dinners after a day on the slopes. Skiers and outdoor lovers will feel right at home with a dedicated gear room featuring its own private entrance -- kick off your boots, hang your layers, and keep the snow where it belongs. A sunny three-season room invites you to soak in the Adirondacks through every changing leaf and late spring thaw, and an in-home laundry room with newer appliances keeps things running smoothly all season long. Outside, established gardens and a fully fenced yard make this property as welcoming for pets as it is for people. Whether you're hosting a crowd or stealing a quiet weekend away, the grounds offer beauty and breathing room in equal measure. Peace of mind comes built in -- a brand-new septic system and leachfield were installed in October 2025. Adventure out front. Sanctuary at home.

Key facts

• Spacious dining room
• Adirondack sanctuary
• 1.57 acre lot

Tags

• ADIRONDACK SANCTUARY
• GORE MOUNTAIN BASE CAMP
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• SPACIOUS DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $288k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $288k).
• Recommended offer: $262k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.2% in North Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#683 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• North Warren Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #352 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $262,080 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.28%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $408,856
• List price: $288,000
• Delta: -29.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $226,572
• Equity at exit: $259,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.60×
• Total profit: $612,554
• Equity at exit: $559,521

Cash invested: $80,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12853

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,904 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$360 /mo · $4,320/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$820
• Net cashflow: $1,094

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,519

Max offer price $288,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,000
• Closing costs: $8,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $288,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $288,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $288,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $288,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $288,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $288,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $288,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $288,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $288,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $288,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $288,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $288,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $288,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $288,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $288,000 1229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1229 chars)

    Nestled on 1.57 acres just 8 miles from Gore Mountain, this one-of-a-kind ski retreat blends rustic charm with everyday comfort -- everything you need for the perfect mountain getaway. With four bedrooms and one and a half baths, there's plenty of room for the whole crew. The first-floor primary bedroom makes coming and going a breeze, while the generous dining room sets the scene for long, lively dinners after a day on the slopes. Skiers and outdoor lovers will feel right at home with a dedicated gear room featuring its own private entrance -- kick off your boots, hang your layers, and keep the snow where it belongs. A sunny three-season room invites you to soak in the Adirondacks through every changing leaf and late spring thaw, and an in-home laundry room with newer appliances keeps things running smoothly all season long. Outside, established gardens and a fully fenced yard make this property as welcoming for pets as it is for people. Whether you're hosting a crowd or stealing a quiet weekend away, the grounds offer beauty and breathing room in equal measure. Peace of mind comes built in -- a brand-new septic system and leachfield were installed in October 2025. Adventure out front. Sanctuary at home.

16. 2026-04-10
    price $289,000 1229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1229 chars)

    Nestled on 1.57 acres just 8 miles from Gore Mountain, this one-of-a-kind ski retreat blends rustic charm with everyday comfort -- everything you need for the perfect mountain getaway. With four bedrooms and one and a half baths, there's plenty of room for the whole crew. The first-floor primary bedroom makes coming and going a breeze, while the generous dining room sets the scene for long, lively dinners after a day on the slopes. Skiers and outdoor lovers will feel right at home with a dedicated gear room featuring its own private entrance -- kick off your boots, hang your layers, and keep the snow where it belongs. A sunny three-season room invites you to soak in the Adirondacks through every changing leaf and late spring thaw, and an in-home laundry room with newer appliances keeps things running smoothly all season long. Outside, established gardens and a fully fenced yard make this property as welcoming for pets as it is for people. Whether you're hosting a crowd or stealing a quiet weekend away, the grounds offer beauty and breathing room in equal measure. Peace of mind comes built in -- a brand-new septic system and leachfield were installed in October 2025. Adventure out front. Sanctuary at home.

17. 2026-03-16
    listed $294,000 Active 1229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1229 chars)

    Nestled on 1.57 acres just 8 miles from Gore Mountain, this one-of-a-kind ski retreat blends rustic charm with everyday comfort -- everything you need for the perfect mountain getaway. With four bedrooms and one and a half baths, there's plenty of room for the whole crew. The first-floor primary bedroom makes coming and going a breeze, while the generous dining room sets the scene for long, lively dinners after a day on the slopes. Skiers and outdoor lovers will feel right at home with a dedicated gear room featuring its own private entrance -- kick off your boots, hang your layers, and keep the snow where it belongs. A sunny three-season room invites you to soak in the Adirondacks through every changing leaf and late spring thaw, and an in-home laundry room with newer appliances keeps things running smoothly all season long. Outside, established gardens and a fully fenced yard make this property as welcoming for pets as it is for people. Whether you're hosting a crowd or stealing a quiet weekend away, the grounds offer beauty and breathing room in equal measure. Peace of mind comes built in -- a brand-new septic system and leachfield were installed in October 2025. Adventure out front. Sanctuary at home.

18. 2026-03-15
    historical
19. 2026-03-02
    price $294,000
20. 2026-02-11
    price $298,000
21. 2025-09-15
    listed $299,000 Active
22. 2025-07-13
    status Active
23. 2025-07-13
    historical Contingent
24. 2025-07-13
    historical
25. 2025-02-04
    price $319,000
26. 2025-01-14
    listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,132
• − Property taxes: −$4,320
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,748
• − Management: −$3,748
• − Depreciation: −$8,378
• Taxable income: $9,080
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,179
• After-tax cash flow: $10,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home offers a good condition with a good rehab level, featuring a well-maintained exterior, hardwood floors, and neutral paint. Minor updates to the kitchen and bathroom would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated design
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the kitchen and increases functionality
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes the bathroom and increases functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the kitchen and increases functionality ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes the bathroom and increases functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Warren Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616960
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,309
• Composite: 44.32/100
• National rank: #2829
• State rank: #352 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #683
• US rank: #12939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,384

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.16%
• Current HPI: 310.7228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-17.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $288,000 Global MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $289,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $294,000 Global MLS
• 2026-03-15 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $294,000 Global MLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $298,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $299,000 Global MLS
• 2025-07-13 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-07-13 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2025-07-13 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $319,000 Global MLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $350,000 Global MLS