261 N County Road 1016 · Ricardo, TX 78363

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1996 1.25 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to peaceful country living with this unique property offering two homes on 2.5 acres! The main home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, providing plenty of space. The second home is a cozy 2 bedroom, 1 bath perfect for extended living, guests, or potential rental income. This property offers privacy and a serene atmosphere you’ll love coming home to. Enjoy wide open spaces, fresh air, and the charm of country life all in one place!

Key facts

• Privacy
• Wide open spaces
• Serene atmosphere

Tags

• 2.5 ACRES
• PRIVACY
• SERENE ATMOSPHERE
• WIDE OPEN SPACES
• CHARM OF COUNTRY LIFE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,151 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Ricardo ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #277 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Kleberg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kleberg County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.98%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,764
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $54,287
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78363

• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,712 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $925/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,352

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    price $175,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with this unique property offering two homes on 2.5 acres! The main home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, providing plenty of space. The second home is a cozy 2 bedroom, 1 bath perfect for extended living, guests, or potential rental income. This property offers privacy and a serene atmosphere you’ll love coming home to. Enjoy wide open spaces, fresh air, and the charm of country life all in one place!

18. 2026-03-31
    listed $185,000 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with this unique property offering two homes on 2.5 acres! The main home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, providing plenty of space. The second home is a cozy 2 bedroom, 1 bath perfect for extended living, guests, or potential rental income. This property offers privacy and a serene atmosphere you’ll love coming home to. Enjoy wide open spaces, fresh air, and the charm of country life all in one place!

19. 2000-10-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $925 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,277/yr (+$190/mo · 246.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$925
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $566
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$136
• After-tax cash flow: $3,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ricardo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836930
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,642
• Composite: 38.08/100
• National rank: #4280
• State rank: #277 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ricardo

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1151
• US rank: #20217

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kleberg County · 28,920 people
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,920
• Household income: $60,574
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Kleberg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,615 people
• By 2030: 32,054 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 33,008 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 34,536 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 40,931 · +29.5%
• By 2100: 46,001 · +45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 36% White 20% Black 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kleberg

• 2024 margin: R (+12.7) · D 43.3% · R 56.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 7.2pp · 2024: -12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.7 2020: R+1.7 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+7.8 2008: D+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.12%
• Current HPI: 147.6473
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $175,000 CBMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $185,000 CBMLS
• 2000-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $925 · +20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.