5120 W Marge Ln · Citrus Springs, FL 34433

$212,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1971 0.31 ac lot Est $239k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Tucked away in the heart of Dunnellon, this charming cabin-style retreat offers the perfect blend of rustic character and outdoor adventure. Featuring laminate flooring throughout, a newer water heater, an 8-year-old roof, and a brand-new A/C installed in 2026, this home is well-equipped for comfort and peace of mind. A unique and versatile layout includes both an interior spiral staircase and a separate exterior wider wooden staircase, providing convenient access to the second floor. Upstairs, enjoy a breezy screened lanai—an ideal spot to relax and take in the peaceful surroundings. What truly sets this property apart is the deeded access to a

Key facts

• Screened lanai
• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1971

Tags

• INTERIOR SPIRAL STAIRCASE
• SCREENED LANAI
• DEEDED ACCESS TO CANAL LOT
• CONNECTIVITY TO RAINBOW RIVER
• NEARBY GOLDENDALE BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned CLR; One septic system; Lot assessed as roughly 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Completed condition; Faces west; Two stories; Entry level: Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot sized about 0.31 acre (approx. 110 x 125)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Other exterior features; Canal water view; Brackish canal access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Thermostat; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $212k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $212k).
• Recommended offer: $206k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.1% in Citrus Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 642 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,125 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.15%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11911 N Ellsworth Ter	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	22mo	$220,000	$153	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $778
• Equity at exit: $31,684

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $46,044
• Equity at exit: $18,373

Cash invested: $59,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34433

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 642
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,114
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,632/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,800

Max offer price $212,500

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,125
• Closing costs: $6,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12950 SW 233rd Terrace Rd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.5	1612	$2,500	$1.55	13d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $212,500 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $212,500 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $212,500 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $212,500 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $212,500 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   price $212,500
7. 2026-04-07
   listed $215,000 Active
8. 2026-01-02
   historical
9. 2025-12-27
   price $219,999
10. 2025-11-21
    price $220,000
11. 2025-11-21
    price $220,000
12. 2025-11-13
    price $226,800
13. 2025-11-03
    price $231,800
14. 2025-10-31
    price $231,900
15. 2025-10-24
    price $231,800
16. 2025-08-29
    price $231,900
17. 2025-08-17
    price $232,000
18. 2025-08-17
    price $232,000
19. 2025-08-12
    price $248,900
20. 2025-08-12
    price $248,900
21. 2025-07-23
    price $249,000
22. 2025-07-23
    price $249,000
23. 2025-03-14
    price $258,000
24. 2025-03-09
    price $258,000
25. 2025-02-20
    price $259,000
26. 2025-02-19
    price $259,000
27. 2025-02-09
    listed $269,000 Active
28. 2022-05-02
    soldstatus $219,000
29. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus $219,000 Closed
30. 2022-03-23
    status Pending
31. 2022-03-19
    listed $219,000 Active
32. 1994-06-14
    soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,632 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,632 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,903
• − Property taxes: −$2,632
• − Insurance: −$1,062
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,182
• Taxable income: $3,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$821
• After-tax cash flow: $5,812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,730
• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.35%
• Current HPI: 340.9844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+466.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $212,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $219,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $220,000 RACC
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $226,800 RACC
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $231,800 RACC
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $231,900 RACC
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $231,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $231,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-17 Price Changed $232,000 RACC
• 2025-08-17 Price Changed $232,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $248,900 RACC
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $248,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $249,000 RACC
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $258,000 RACC
• 2025-03-09 Price Changed $258,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $259,000 RACC
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-09 Listed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $219,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-29 Sold (MLS) $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-19 Listed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,632 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.