17481 Us Route 11 · Watertown, NY 13601

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Land · 110 Days on market

Built 1995 0.50 ac lot $83/sqft · 71% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This move-in ready manufactured home is situated on a quiet street in Northland Estates conveniently located between Watertown & Adams. Enter into the home from the covered front porch to an open floor plan that includes a large living room, kitchen w/ a skylight, butcher block center island, coffee bar & a perfect table nook. Down the hall is a recently updated full common bath w/ a tub unit, 2 good-sized bedrooms & then the primary bedroom at the end of the hall. The primary includes dual closets, a new modern bathroom with a stand-up shower & separate sink area. The laundry room has a back door that leads out to the oversized back deck. Sitting on a half an acre lot the back is fully fenced in. Plus, there is a paved driveway, detached 1 car garage & also a shed for storage. All the big-ticket expenses have all been updated to include a 2 year old high efficient natura gas furnace, new vinyl replacement windows are 3 years old, new metal roof is 3 years old, water heater is 4 years old, central air was added 5 years ago, new flooring throughout & a new natural gas fireplace was recently installed to keep warm on those chilly nights or if a storm causes a power outage. If you're looking for the convenience of single level living & a prime location just outside of the city this is it!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Table nook
• New modern bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BUTCHER BLOCK CENTER ISLAND
• COFFEE BAR
• TABLE NOOK
• DUAL CLOSETS
• NEW MODERN BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 6.3% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.23%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,425
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 71.40%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $36,182
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $126,953
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,679 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $736	-5% $703	+0% $670	+5% $637	+10% $604
Rent	-10% $537	-5% $604	+0% $670	+5% $736	+10% $803
Rate	-1.0pp $718	-0.5pp $694	base $670	+0.5pp $645	+1.0pp $620

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 89 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 88 DOM
18. 2026-03-03
    listed $95,000 Active 1348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

    This move-in ready manufactured home is situated on a quiet street in Northland Estates conveniently located between Watertown & Adams. Enter into the home from the covered front porch to an open floor plan that includes a large living room, kitchen w/ a skylight, butcher block center island, coffee bar & a perfect table nook. Down the hall is a recently updated full common bath w/ a tub unit, 2 good-sized bedrooms & then the primary bedroom at the end of the hall. The primary includes dual closets, a new modern bathroom with a stand-up shower & separate sink area. The laundry room has a back door that leads out to the oversized back deck. Sitting on a half an acre lot the back is fully fenced in. Plus, there is a paved driveway, detached 1 car garage & also a shed for storage. All the big-ticket expenses have all been updated to include a 2 year old high efficient natura gas furnace, new vinyl replacement windows are 3 years old, new metal roof is 3 years old, water heater is 4 years old, central air was added 5 years ago, new flooring throughout & a new natural gas fireplace was recently installed to keep warm on those chilly nights or if a storm causes a power outage. If you're looking for the convenience of single level living & a prime location just outside of the city this is it!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,612
• − Management: −$1,612
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $6,941
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,666
• After-tax cash flow: $6,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $95,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $79,821 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.