Is 8409 Richard Way in Birch Bay, WA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 5.3% cap rate and $-159/mo modeled cash flow at a $195,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 8409 Richard Way?

The modeled cap rate is 5.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,510/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 45.89

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +8.9/30.0
Appreciation +7.5/10.0
Schools +4.7/10.0
Rent growth +3.3/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
1% rule +2.7/10.0
DSCR +2.4/10.0
Condition / age +2.2/5.0
Manufactured-home adj. -4.0

$195,000

8409 Richard Way · Birch Bay, WA 98230

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 87 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1976 Fair condition 7,907 sqft lot $268/sqft · 31% below area Est $284k · 31% under $4/mo HOA

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Views of Birch Bay and the surrounding mountains from this sun-filled property - offering the perfect blend of simplicity, comfort, and coastal lifestyle. The home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bath with an easy, functional layout ideal for weekend getaways or year-round living. A large and welcoming porch provides the perfect spot to relax and take in the scenery, while the included trailer and storage shed add flexibility and convenience for hobbies or extra space. Whether you're looking for an affordable retreat or a place to unwind near the water, this unique opportunity delivers incredible value in a beautiful location.

Key facts

Storage shed
Coastal lifestyle
Views of birch bay

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (11.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (22.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $151k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $151,005 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.77% ✗
Cap rate: 5.32%
Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
DSCR: 0.84
GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $284,055
List price: $195,000
Delta: -31.35%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5594 Hillvue Rd	0.18mi	2/2.0	816 (+12%)	10mo	$312,000	$382	59
5178 Anderson Rd	0.92mi	2/1.0	728 (0%)	12mo	$190,000	$261	55
8246 Salish Ln	0.71mi	2/1.0	784 (+8%)	13mo	$275,000	$351	43
8225 Salish Ln	0.76mi	2/1.0	840 (+15%)	2mo	$271,000	$323	39
5858 Salish Rd	0.81mi	2/1.0	840 (+15%)	11mo	$340,000	$405	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 21.8%
Equity multiple: 2.76×
Total profit: $96,274
Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

IRR: 19.7%
Equity multiple: 6.34×
Total profit: $291,819
Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 2 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $224,500 ($304/sqft)
Median days on market: 226 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +28.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 98230

Home prices YoY: 14.0%
Rents YoY: 3.1%
Active inventory: 572
Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,510 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
Insurance: −$81
HOA: −$4
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,711

Max offer price $172,041

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-91	+0% $-159	+5% $-226	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-278	-5% $-218	+0% $-159	+5% $-99	+10% $-39
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-109	base $-159	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $48,750
Closing costs: $5,850
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Listing accepts Cash and Conventional financing
HOA & community: Homeowners association with $50 annual fee

Exterior

Parking: Driveway parking
Utilities: Private water (Birch Bay Water & Sewer)Sewer connected (Birch Bay Water & Sewer)Electric power (PSE)
Home design: Manufactured single-wide homeOne storyMain-level entry
Construction: Metal/vinyl exteriorMetal roofManufactured home construction
Exterior features: DeckDead-end street locationPaved accessHas a view

Interior

Kitchen: Stove/rangeRefrigeratorDishwasher not listed
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
Flooring: Vinyl flooringCarpet flooring
Bathrooms: 1 three-quarter bathroom (on the main level)
Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingNo central cooling
Interior features: Washer and dryer includedRefrigerator and stove/range includedVinyl and carpet flooring
Laundry & utility: Washer and dryerElectric energy source

HOA detail $4/mo · $48/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $195,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $195,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $195,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $195,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $195,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $195,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $195,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $195,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $195,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $195,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $195,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $195,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $195,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $195,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $195,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $195,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $195,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $195,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $195,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $195,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $195,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $195,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-08

days on market $195,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $195,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $195,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $195,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $195,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $195,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $195,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $195,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $195,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $195,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $195,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $195,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-25

days on market $195,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $195,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $195,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $195,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $195,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $195,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $195,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $195,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $195,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-05

days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $18,121
− Mortgage interest: −$10,923
− Property taxes: −$2,925
− Insurance: −$975
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
− Management: −$1,450
− HOA: −$48
− Depreciation: −$5,673
Taxable loss: −$5,322

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,277
After-tax cash flow: $-627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $18,200–$32,760 screening

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bath, and improve the exterior. The property has a good location and potential for significant value increase with these updates.

Repairs flagged

Major kitchen cabinets — outdated and in poor condition
Major bath cabinets — outdated and in poor condition
Major kitchen flooring — dated and in poor condition
Major bath flooring — dated and in poor condition

Value-add opportunities

Resale update kitchen cabinets — modern cabinets improve aesthetics ↑
Resale update bath cabinets — modern cabinets improve aesthetics ↑
Resale update kitchen flooring — modern flooring improves aesthetics ↑
Resale update bath flooring — modern flooring improves aesthetics ↑
Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both replace deck — new deck improves curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blaine Primary School Middle Blaine Middle School High Blaine High School

Schools (NCES district)

District: Blaine School District
NCES district ID: 5300570
Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $57,085
Composite: 47.05/100
National rank: #5128
State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Birch Bay

Score: 62/100
State rank: #406
US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Birch Bay, WA
County: Whatcom County · 240,408 people
Metro: Bellingham, WA
Population (ZIP): 18,744
Household income: $86,623
Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 240,408 people
By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
Current HPI: 868.68
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
Metro: Bellingham, WA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Retail	2	$269B
#12 Costco Wholesale Issaquah $254.5B #236 Nordstrom Seattle $14.9B
Technology / Retail	1	$638B
#2 Amazon Seattle $638.0B
Technology	1	$245B
#14 Microsoft Redmond $245.1B
Telecommunications	1	$38B
#113 T-Mobile US Bellevue $38.3B
Food / Beverage	1	$36B
#230 Starbucks Seattle $36.2B
Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B
#123 PACCAR Bellevue $33.7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-13 Listed $195,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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