8409 Richard Way · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition 7,907 sqft lot $268/sqft · 34% below area Est $295k · 34% under $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Views of Birch Bay and the surrounding mountains from this sun-filled property - offering the perfect blend of simplicity, comfort, and coastal lifestyle. The home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bath with an easy, functional layout ideal for weekend getaways or year-round living. A large and welcoming porch provides the perfect spot to relax and take in the scenery, while the included trailer and storage shed add flexibility and convenience for hobbies or extra space. Whether you're looking for an affordable retreat or a place to unwind near the water, this unique opportunity delivers incredible value in a beautiful location.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Coastal lifestyle
• Views of birch bay

Tags

• VIEWS OF BIRCH BAY
• SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS
• LARGE AND WELCOMING PORCH
• INCLUDED TRAILER
• STORAGE SHED
• COASTAL LIFESTYLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash and Conventional financing
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $50 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Private water (Birch Bay Water & Sewer); Sewer connected (Birch Bay Water & Sewer); Electric power (PSE)
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Main-level entry
• Construction: Metal/vinyl exterior; Metal roof; Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Dead-end street location; Paved access; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 three-quarter bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Refrigerator and stove/range included; Vinyl and carpet flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Electric energy source

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $189,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.49%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,695
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -33.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5545 Seavue Rd	0.13mi	2/1.0	720 (-1%)	24mo	$219,000	$304	72
5594 Hillvue Rd	0.18mi	2/2.0	816 (+12%)	8mo	$312,000	$382	60
8246 Salish Ln	0.71mi	2/1.0	784 (+8%)	12mo	$275,000	$351	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $119,453
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $342,000
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,711

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,891
• − Management: −$1,891
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$165
• After-tax cash flow: $2,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bath, and improve the exterior. The property has a good location and potential for significant value increase with these updates.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — outdated and in poor condition
• Major bath cabinets — outdated and in poor condition
• Major kitchen flooring — dated and in poor condition
• Major bath flooring — dated and in poor condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modern cabinets improve aesthetics
• Resale update bath cabinets — modern cabinets improve aesthetics
• Resale update kitchen flooring — modern flooring improves aesthetics
• Resale update bath flooring — modern flooring improves aesthetics
• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace deck — new deck improves curb appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bath cabinets · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen flooring · dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bath flooring · dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modern cabinets improve aesthetics ↑
• Resale update bath cabinets — modern cabinets improve aesthetics ↑
• Resale update kitchen flooring — modern flooring improves aesthetics ↑
• Resale update bath flooring — modern flooring improves aesthetics ↑
• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace deck — new deck improves curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $195,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid