28 Upton Pl · Rochester, NY 14612

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,591 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1890 10,454 sqft lot Est $263k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property! This great home has so much to offer. Great open rooms that provide lots of room for entertaining guests or play. Located close to amenities being in the city of Rochester! Great light throughout. Situated on a nice lot with a lot of trees creating privacy.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Newer windows
• Brand-new kitchen

Tags

• QUIET DEAD-END STREET
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• GLASS BLOCK BASEMENT WINDOWS
• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot on a cul-de-sac; Rectangular residential lot (approximately 0.24 acres, 66 x 158); Near public transit; City street frontage

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Two stories; Existing construction
• Construction: Composite siding; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Resale condition
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Open porch; Gravel driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Kitchen island; Convertible bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $769 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $150k implies a 614% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.59%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,515
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
137 Pollard Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-1%)	9mo	$210,000	$133	82
522 Latta Rd	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,515 (-5%)	4mo	$250,000	$165	60
82 Lakeland Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,500 (-6%)	7mo	$180,000	$120	59
89 Deville Dr	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,598 (+0%)	10mo	$275,000	$172	58
25 Meech Park	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,368 (-14%)	9mo	$160,000	$117	57
231 Hampton Blvd	0.67mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,548 (-3%)	0mo	$260,000	$168	57
15 Beaconview Ct	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,470 (-8%)	8mo	$270,000	$184	57
166 Shore Acres Dr	0.69mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,588 (-0%)	6mo	$241,000	$152	55
25 Lakeland Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,459 (-8%)	8mo	$165,000	$113	55
130 Quay Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,512 (-5%)	10mo	$245,000	$162	54
37 Oakmount Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (-14%)	1mo	$295,000	$216	39
5373 Saint Paul Blvd	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,352 (-15%)	9mo	$272,500	$202	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $30,244
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $113,254
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14612

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,316/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $769

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $854	-5% $812	+0% $769	+5% $727	+10% $685
Rent	-10% $591	-5% $680	+0% $769	+5% $859	+10% $948
Rate	-1.0pp $845	-0.5pp $808	base $769	+0.5pp $731	+1.0pp $691

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4302 Lake Ave Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1600	$3,000	$1.88	44d	1	0.09mi
123 Spanish Trl Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	945	$1,775	$1.88	3d	1	0.34mi
500 Greenleaf Rd Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	1176	$1,650	$1.40	3d	1	0.39mi
37 Oakmount Dr Rochester, NY	4.0	2.0	1368	$2,500	$1.83	15d	1	0.69mi
125 Windsor Rd Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1142	$1,700	$1.49	3d	1	0.82mi
3677 Lake Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,200	$1.10	44d	1	0.93mi
108 Glenbrook Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,850	$1.70	24d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $149,900 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-05
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,316 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,925 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$609/yr (+$51/mo · 46.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,316
• − Insurance: −$1,416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $7,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,743
• After-tax cash flow: $7,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 35,152
• Household income: $82,800
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1063.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.89%
• Current HPI: 254.157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+196.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-26 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $144,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $150,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-01-04 Sold (MLS) $21,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-12-07 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2015-11-04 Price Changed $22,900 UNYREIS
• 2015-09-24 Price Changed $25,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-08-24 Price Changed $32,900 UNYREIS
• 2015-07-23 Price Changed $35,900 UNYREIS
• 2015-06-22 Listed $39,000 UNYREIS
• 2007-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $50,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,316 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.