1420 Lum Brown Rd · Williamston, NC 27892

$99,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1973 0.50 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-full-bath brick ranch nestled just outside the city limits of Williamston, NC, where peaceful surroundings meet endless potential. Step inside and let your imagination run free as you bring your personal vision and creativity to life in this inviting space. The enclosed carport has been transformed into a cozy gathering area, complete with a warm wood-burning fireplace -- perfect for relaxing evenings or casual entertaining. The spacious kitchen offers plenty of room for cooking and conversation and flows seamlessly into a formal dining room, ready to host holiday meals and special occasions. A bright living room welcomes you with a large bay windo

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Spacious kitchen
• Large bay window

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LARGE BAY WINDOW
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport; Covered parking; Concrete parking surface; Off-street/on-site parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick and frame construction with brick veneer; Shingle roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Built as residential single-family
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; No additional exterior features listed; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Master on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Propane heating; Wall furnace; Forced air
• Interior features: Master suite on the main level; Ceiling fans; Storm windows; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup; Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.8% in Williamston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#584 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin County Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #150 of 178 in NC (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: E J Hayes Elementary (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #945 of 1,410 statewide, top 68%, 273 students, 99% FRL); Riverside Middle (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #388 of 475 statewide, top 83%, 364 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 62% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Martin County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.79%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,548
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1420 Tyner Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (-0%)	7mo	$260,000	$172	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $41,091
• Equity at exit: $57,142

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $108,845
• Equity at exit: $99,252

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27892

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,276/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $848

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $302	+0% $274	+5% $246	+10% $217
Rent	-10% $179	-5% $227	+0% $274	+5% $321	+10% $368
Rate	-1.0pp $324	-0.5pp $299	base $274	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,500 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,500 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,500 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,500 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $99,500 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    status $112,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,000 Active Under Contract 101 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $112,000 Active Under Contract 100 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-04-10
    price $112,000
20. 2026-02-17
    listed $123,500 Active
21. 2025-08-27
    historical
22. 2025-04-19
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,276 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,276 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,276
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $1,796
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$431
• After-tax cash flow: $2,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702880
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,403
• Composite: 23.94/100
• National rank: #7781
• State rank: #150 of 178 in NC

Livability — Williamston

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #584
• US rank: #21504

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,387

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,018 people
• By 2030: 19,693 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 16,793 · -20.1%
• By 2050: 14,171 · -32.6%
• By 2075: 9,804 · -53.4%
• By 2100: 6,894 · -67.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 38% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: R (+10.3) · D 44.6% · R 54.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -10.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.3 2020: R+5.0 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.13%
• Current HPI: 178.4817
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $112,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $123,500 Hive MLS
• 2025-08-27 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-04-19 Listed $129,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,276 · +47.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.