10001 Dunbar #20 · Harbison Canyon, CA 92021

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 832 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2002 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute as a button and affordable too! Come take a look at this adorable and freshly remodeled, 2 br, 2 ba manufactured home nestled in the Flynn Springs area of El Cajon. The open living space is bright and airy, flooded with natural light. The cozy kitchen features new appliances, an updated look, and is open to the living space, perfect for entertaining. The whole home has been freshly painted. Other features include, laundry room with washer & dryer included, newer tankless water heater, deck for relaxing and taking in the view of the surrounding hills, and fenced side yard perfect for your pets. This is a great opportunity for a 1st time homebuyer or someone wanting to downsize an

Key facts

• Deck for relaxing
• Laundry room
• Fenced side yard

Tags

• FRESHLY REMODELED
• NEW APPLIANCES
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• DECK FOR RELAXING
• FENCED SIDE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number: 7740212119
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $890
• HOA & community: Community setting: rural, foothills; Located in a land-lease park

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered carport space; 1 parking space total; Located in Rancho Sierra park
• Utilities: Living area source: assessor's data; Lot size source: public records
• Home design: Mobile home (20 x 40); Mobile home remains on site; Single-story; Has a view
• Construction: Year built: seller provided
• Exterior features: No pool; 16–20 units per acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Zoned cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Great room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.3% in Harbison Canyon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,111 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.98%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,973
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $26,162
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $942/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,425

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $708	-5% $656	+0% $603	+5% $551	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $430	-5% $517	+0% $603	+5% $690	+10% $776
Rate	-1.0pp $696	-0.5pp $650	base $603	+0.5pp $555	+1.0pp $507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 695-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $942 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$464/yr (+$39/mo · 49.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$942
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $4,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,068
• After-tax cash flow: $6,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Harbison Canyon

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1111
• US rank: #25583

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $185,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2013): $942 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.