516 Stanley Ave · Johnson City, TN 37604

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,087 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1935 10,454 sqft lot Est $226k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single family home great as investment property or as a first home/retirement home, needs lots of TLC. Being sold AS-IS. Buyer/buyer's agent to verify all info within.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.1% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#8 in TN, #3,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment F.
• Johnson City (urban): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #9 of 139 in TN (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Side Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #319 of 952 statewide, top 37%, 375 students, 0% FRL); Liberty Bell Middle School (math 43% / reading 38%, grade F, #42 of 333 statewide, top 13%, 898 students, 0% FRL); Science Hill High School (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #13 of 332 statewide, top 4%, 2,401 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 207 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,155 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (437 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.32%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
916 Hillcrest Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,066 (-2%)	2mo	$301,000	$282	84
922 Hillcrest Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,062 (-2%)	3mo	$240,000	$226	82
314 8th Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,102 (+1%)	0mo	$133,000	$121	74
204 Delaware St	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,011 (-7%)	1mo	$210,000	$208	70
1015 Knob Creek Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (-2%)	3mo	$264,900	$249	68
1011 Johnson Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,080 (-1%)	1mo	$240,000	$222	62
304 1/2 Chilhowie Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-8%)	1mo	$232,000	$232	55
423 Wilson Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	975 (-10%)	4mo	$174,000	$178	51
1012 Lincoln Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,178 (+8%)	1mo	$225,000	$191	51
507 Robinson Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-14%)	4mo	$180,000	$192	50
621 Hamilton St	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,184 (+9%)	6mo	$169,000	$143	46
103 Harrison St	0.68mi	2/1.0	948 (-13%)	5mo	$110,000	$116	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,110
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,897
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37604

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,345 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $648/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $964

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 Stanley Ave Apt 03 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	44d	1	0.06mi
923 E Hillcrest Dr Unit 2 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	13d	1	0.13mi
1220 Knob Creek Rd Unit 18 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,200	$1.00	13d	1	0.39mi
1408 Knob Creek Rd Unit 7 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	949	$1,250	$1.32	44d	1	0.53mi
722 Liberty Bell Blvd Unit 1397962P Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.5	1194	$3,434	$2.88	13d	1	0.64mi
621 Hamilton St Johnson City, TN	2.0	2.0	1184	$1,725	$1.46	21d	1	0.65mi
829 Hamilton St Johnson City, TN	3.0	2.0	1324	$2,100	$1.59	21d	1	0.69mi
621 Lamont St Johnson City, TN	3.0	1.0	925	$1,500	$1.62	13d	1	0.72mi
111 W Unaka Ave Apt 2 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,450	$1.26	44d	1	0.72mi
405 W Watauga Ave Unit WAT-34 Johnson City, TN	1.0	1.0	872	$1,150	$1.32	44d	1	0.73mi
268 W Main St Unit WM-06 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	960	$1,350	$1.41	13d	1	0.74mi
608 W Watauga Ave Unit 3 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	0.79mi
250 W Main St Apt 7 Johnson City, TN	1.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	13d	1	0.81mi
220 Highland Ave Unit 1397973P Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	925	$3,993	$4.32	13d	1	0.93mi
1107 Miller St Johnson City, TN	3.0	1.0	980	$1,700	$1.73	44d	1	0.97mi
234 Mockingbird Ln Johnson City, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	852	$1,419	$1.67	13d	3	1.06mi
116 E Market St Johnson City, TN	2.0	2.5	1249	$1,700	$1.36	13d	1	1.12mi
616 W Maple St Unit 2 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	925	$1,000	$1.08	44d	1	1.14mi
1901 Knob Creek Rd Johnson City, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	650	$1,495	$2.30	44d	1	1.15mi
404 W Maple St Unit 1 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	44d	1	1.23mi
407 S Roan St Johnson City, TN	1.0	1.0	716	$1,250	$1.74	13d	2	1.23mi
703 E Unaka Ave Unit 1 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	1421	$1,300	$0.91	44d	1	1.25mi
701 W Locust St #22 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.5	1141	$1,375	$1.21	44d	1	1.29mi
1729 Mary St Johnson City, TN	3.0	1.0	890	$1,450	$1.63	44d	1	1.39mi
1010 Buffalo St Unit 3 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.0	861	$1,300	$1.51	44d	1	1.40mi
611 E Mountcastle Dr Unit 4 Johnson City, TN	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	13d	1	1.46mi
2001 Indian Ridge Rd Johnson City, TN	3.0	1.0	1236	$1,800	$1.46	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-13
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $648 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$240/yr (+$20/mo · 37.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$648
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,291
• − Management: −$1,291
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,648
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$395
• After-tax cash flow: $3,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson City
• NCES district ID: 4702130
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,514
• Composite: 38.69/100
• National rank: #4143
• State rank: #9 of 139 in TN

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #3349

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson City, TN
• County: Washington County · 129,006 people
• City population: 99,926
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• Population (ZIP): 39,097
• Household income: $52,345
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2254.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 132,816 people
• By 2030: 135,823 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 140,897 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 145,073 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 156,386 · +17.7%
• By 2100: 159,893 · +20.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.6% · R 69.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+36.2 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+38.5 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.73%
• Current HPI: 277.1137
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $125,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $648 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.