4 Valley View Dr · Batavia, NY 14020

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Double wide, modular home with attached porch that could be used year round. Two bedrooms, two full baths, large living room with bay window. Modern kitchen with island. Nice private large yard. Additional living space in heated side porch

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Attached porch
• Large yard

Tags

• ATTACHED PORCH
• LARGE YARD
• ON DEMAND HWT
• METAL ROOF
• VINYL SIDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $646

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no garage)
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Double-wide mobile home; Resale condition
• Construction: Metal roof; Vinyl siding; PEX plumbing; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms (one ~10 x 11, one ~21 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Resilient flooring; Vinyl; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $826 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 31.1% vs local median 5.5% in Batavia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#536 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Byron-Bergen Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #348 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $40k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.75%
• DSCR: 4.95
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,600
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8499 Stringham Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,192 (-1%)	5mo	$260,000	$218	67
8540 Seven Springs Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,286 (+7%)	5mo	$300,000	$233	52
8452 Stringham Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	23mo	$245,000	$196	49
8498 Stringham Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+15%)	11mo	$222,500	$161	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.13×
• Total profit: $46,178
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.67×
• Total profit: $108,057
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14020

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Med Tech Dr Batavia, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1232	$1,822	$1.48	1d	2	0.58mi
242 N Spruce St Batavia, NY	1.0	1.0	756	$1,020	$1.35	1d	1	1.30mi
115 Woodstock Gdns Unit 115 Batavia, NY	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,230	$1.22	10d	1	1.38mi
219 N Spruce St Batavia, NY	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,230	$1.22	43d	1	1.41mi
10 Woodstock Gdns Unit 10 Batavia, NY	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,230	$1.22	1d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 478-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $39,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,739
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,867
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,368
• After-tax cash flow: $7,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Byron-Bergen Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606090
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,527
• Composite: 44.57/100
• National rank: #2785
• State rank: #348 of 590 in NY

Livability — Batavia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #536
• US rank: #9660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Genesee County · 22,002 people
• City population: 22,002
• Metro: Batavia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,002
• Household income: $62,655
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,113 people
• By 2030: 54,140 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 49,368 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 43,911 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 32,511 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 21,695 · -61.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 33.0% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.58%
• Current HPI: 263.2147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Batavia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $39,900 WNYREIS
• 2013-05-31 Sold (MLS) $16,500 UNYREIS
• 2012-10-22 Listed $20,000 UNYREIS