47 Sugar Bear Dr #9 · Safety Harbor, FL 34695

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1977 4,382 sqft lot Est $139k · at est. $235/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Briar Creek! This charming 2-bedroom, 2 full bathroom home is move-in ready and includes deeded ownership of the lot! As you enter the home through the large screened in patio to the eat-in kitchen your eyes are drawn to the brand new LVP flooring. The light and bright feel of the space pulls you into the dining room and adjoining living room with their floor to ceiling windows. The large space gives you the flexibility for entertaining guests while still having plenty of space for a quiet sitting room. In the rear of the home, you will find the guest bedroom with its adjoining bathroom and the primary bedroom featuring a walk-in closet and ensuite bathroom. For added convenience

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Ensuite bathroom
• 4,382 sq ft lot

Tags

• DEEDED OWNERSHIP OF THE LOT
• LARGE SCREENED IN PATIO
• BRAND NEW LVP FLOORING
• FLOOR TO CEILING WINDOWS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is unfurnished; Living area reported as 960 square feet; building area total reported; Lot identified as within city limits
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA — association name listed; Monthly condo/association fee $235; Annual fees noted; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, maintenance; Association fee includes pool, common area taxes, maintenance grounds, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; number and size limits; max pet weight 25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Off-street parking; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; High-speed internet available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide; One level; Faces southeast
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on 0 to less than 1/4 acre lot; Paved, asphalt road
• Exterior features: Screened side porch; Rain gutters; Storage; Trees/landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room (outside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.7% in Safety Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#8 in FL, #296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Curlew Creek Elementary School (math 67% / reading 63%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 634 students, 43% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $139k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.98%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,200
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 New Fawn Ct #23	0.09mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	8mo	$125,000	$145	72
138 Thistle Briar Dr #52	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	9mo	$140,000	$133	64
70 Live Oak Ct #21	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	8mo	$115,000	$105	63
43 New Fawn Ct #28	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	17mo	$179,000	$162	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,519
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $61,773
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34695

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,513

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $355	-5% $307	+0% $259	+5% $211	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $186	+0% $259	+5% $331	+10% $404
Rate	-1.0pp $329	-0.5pp $294	base $259	+0.5pp $223	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36 Magnolia Ct #4 Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	18d	1	0.15mi
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	5d	1	0.65mi
116 Dolphin Dr S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,550	$2.34	13d	1	0.69mi
1 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	11d	1	0.79mi
86 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	25d	1	0.81mi
2955 Bay View Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,150	$2.05	25d	1	0.94mi
3455 Countryside Blvd #4 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$2,050	$2.06	5d	1	1.00mi
2941 Shore Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1055	$1,825	$1.73	5d	1	1.01mi
3640 Meriden Ave Unit 3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,575	$1.61	13d	1	1.11mi
3664 Meriden Ave Unit A Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,795	$1.85	25d	1	1.16mi
3141 Huron Ave Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,875	$1.72	25d	1	1.22mi
161 Lakeside Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	18d	1	1.27mi
3590 Magnolia Ridge Cir Unit G Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,695	$1.56	25d	1	1.27mi
108 Nina Way #3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,695	$1.55	25d	1	1.29mi
3583 Whispering Oaks Ln Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1124	$1,800	$1.60	25d	1	1.30mi
107 Windward Pl Unit 107 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$2,000	$2.28	18d	1	1.32mi
414 Meadow Ln Oldsmar, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	25d	1	1.35mi
114 Meadow Ln #114 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$1,700	$1.93	25d	1	1.38mi
2652 N McMullen Booth Rd Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,698	$1.64	2d	15	1.38mi
47 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	24d	1	1.44mi
100 Old Village Way Oldsmar, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,475	$1.38	2d	9	1.45mi
122 Caryl Way Bldg 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,850	$1.69	25d	1	1.46mi
218 Caryl Way Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,740	$1.59	13d	1	1.46mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	17d	1	1.47mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	3d	1	1.47mi
3062 Eastland Blvd Unit D11 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	920	$1,695	$1.84	25d	1	1.49mi
3038 Eastland Blvd Unit F101 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,775	$1.72	5d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $139,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$270
• After-tax cash flow: $2,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Safety Harbor

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Safety Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 18,098
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,098
• Household income: $95,238
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 103.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.72%
• Current HPI: 335.0437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.34%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+105.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $205 · +13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.