20507 Pinos Verde Dr · Houston, TX 77433

$247,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,698 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2007 5,593 sqft lot Est $370k · 33% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Inviting two-story home featuring four spacious bedrooms and two full large and one half bathrooms. This home also features: a cozy kitchen/breakfast for all your cooking needs, a game room for your pool table, a formal dining room for entertaining guests, and a capacious family room great to relax in after a long day! Enjoy the open backyard great for all your family activites! Don't miss a great opportunity to view this warm home up close and personal before it's too late! Check it out today!

Key facts

• 5,593 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $247k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $247k).
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hopper Middle (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 930 students, 80% FRL); Cypress Springs H S (math 35% / reading 60%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,788 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 43% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2034 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 66% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 152% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $369,626
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20506 Fairworth Place Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,467 (-9%)	4mo	$229,900	$93	71
8107 Lockridge Terrace Ln	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,789 (+3%)	0mo	$375,000	$134	70
20102 Breezy Oak Ct	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,800 (+4%)	2mo	$334,000	$119	66
7555 Coral Lake Dr	0.48mi	4/3.5	2,527 (-6%)	5mo	$410,000	$162	59
21011 Creekside Mill Way	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,472 (-8%)	6mo	$339,000	$137	50
7902 Palm Glade Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,905 (+8%)	6mo	$435,999	$150	49
7918 Palm Glade Dr	0.64mi	4/3.5	2,906 (+8%)	6mo	$445,999	$153	48
20914 Moreland Grove Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,375 (-12%)	5mo	$360,000	$152	48
21211 Blue Bluff Dr	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,905 (+8%)	6mo	$450,000	$155	46
21119 Montego Bay Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,391 (-11%)	4mo	$314,995	$132	44
21107 Salton Sea Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,391 (-11%)	3mo	$314,995	$132	42
7419 Casuna Ln	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,402 (-11%)	4mo	$329,900	$137	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-41,965
• Equity at exit: $36,829

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-58,616
• Equity at exit: $21,356

Cash invested: $69,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2034
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,679 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax from tax record: −$583 /mo · $7,001/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,567

Max offer price $247,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,750
• Closing costs: $7,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20730 Dickinson Manor Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	2.5	2710	$2,350	$0.87	1d	1	0.28mi
21010 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,768	$1.28	43d	1	0.38mi
21014 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,953	$1.19	43d	1	0.39mi
21031 Sandestin Ridge Dr Cypress, TX	5.0	3.5	2099	$2,861	$1.36	43d	1	0.41mi
21034 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	3.0	2461	$2,861	$1.16	43d	1	0.43mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	43d	1	0.44mi
21046 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$3,045	$1.22	43d	1	0.46mi
21047 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	3.0	2461	$2,953	$1.20	43d	1	0.46mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,622	$1.35	12d	21	0.48mi
21034 Shore Oak Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	2110	$2,950	$1.40	43d	1	0.52mi
21038 Bay Village Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,491	$1.31	43d	1	0.55mi
21114 Montego Bay Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,499	$1.18	43d	1	0.64mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$3,258	$1.83	3d	41	0.68mi
20519 Keegans Ledge Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	1907	$2,100	$1.10	43d	1	0.71mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	43d	1	0.76mi
7546 Coral Terrace Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2050	$2,699	$1.32	43d	1	0.79mi
7830 Ashland Springs Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2352	$1,974	$0.84	20d	1	0.81mi
19758 Crossfalls Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2156	$2,070	$0.96	44d	1	0.93mi
19815 Blushdawn Sierra Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2590	$2,050	$0.79	24d	1	0.96mi
7850 Maverick Trace Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1852	$1,875	$1.01	43d	1	1.00mi
7876 Galleon Field Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	3.5	3059	$2,486	$0.81	7d	1	1.06mi
6642 High Stone Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$1,999	$0.96	43d	1	1.12mi
7818 Yaupon Ranch Ct Cypress, TX	5.0	2.5	2774	$2,215	$0.80	44d	1	1.16mi
6506 Garden Canyon Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,895	$1.03	21d	1	1.23mi
19738 Tacoma Bluff Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2238	$5,000	$2.23	21d	1	1.30mi
21415 Bluebonnet Cove Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2514	$3,000	$1.19	43d	1	1.37mi
21454 Bluebonnet Cove Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2320	$2,600	$1.12	43d	1	1.40mi
19607 Buckland Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$1,965	$1.09	2d	1	1.42mi
6610 Gorton Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	2481	$750	$0.30	2d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-18
   listed $247,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,001 · $583/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,001 · $583/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,836
• − Property taxes: −$7,001
• − Insurance: −$1,235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,572
• − Management: −$2,572
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,185
• Taxable loss: −$2,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$672
• After-tax cash flow: $1,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1700.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+105.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Coming Soon $247,000 HARMLS
• 2012-11-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-08-14 Listed $98,000 HARMLS
• 2010-09-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-08-24 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2010-08-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-06-14 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2010-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-07-14 Listed $120,034 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,001 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.