1985 Thatchers Mill Rd · North Middletown, KY 40361

$209,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,841 sqft · Other public records · 33 Days on market

7,971 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

North Middletown updated ranch home has 3 or 4 bedrooms, spacious living room, oversized dining room, eat in kitchen and one and a half baths, located near the intersection of Main and Thatchers Mill Road. Vinyl siding, windows appear updated, kitchen and baths are modern. SOLD AS IS. ALL BUYERS MUST HAVE A PRE-APPROVAL BEFORE MAKING AN OFFER OR IF CASH OFFER, PROOF OF FUNDS. LISTING AGENT CANNOT SUBMIT OFFERS WITHOUT THIS DOCUMENTATION! BUYER'S AGENT TO VERIFY SQ FT, AGE, ANY HOA OR MONTHLY MAINT. FEES, LOT SIZE AND WHICH UTILITIES ARE AVAILABLE. BUYER'S AGENT TO VERIFY ALL SCHOOL INFO & ALL SEWER AND FLOOD PLAIN INFORMATION.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Insulated windows
• New paint

Tags

• UPDATED HVAC
• INSULATED WINDOWS
• REMODELED FULL BATH
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• NEW RANGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 062-10-02-005.00

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof; Block and stone foundation; Built area approximately 1,525 total
• Exterior features: Workshop; Few trees on the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified (total rooms: 8)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air; Heat pump
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Fireplace; Insulated windows with screens
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#409 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bourbon County (town): math 26% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #108 of 165 in KY (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: North Middletown Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 145 students, 74% FRL); Bourbon County Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 593 students, 63% FRL); Bourbon County High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 790 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 90 units permitted in Bourbon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $209k implies a 597% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $168,115 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.95%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-27,922
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-16,949
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40361

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $154	+0% $95	+5% $36	+10% $-23
Rent	-10% $-38	-5% $29	+0% $95	+5% $161	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $148	base $95	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Main St Unit 1 North Middletown, KY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	16d	1	0.08mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $209,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $219,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $249,000 Active
18. 2011-11-17
    soldstatus $30,000 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    North Middletown updated ranch home has 3 or 4 bedrooms, spacious living room, oversized dining room, eat in kitchen and one and a half baths, located near the intersection of Main and Thatchers Mill Road. Vinyl siding, windows appear updated, kitchen and baths are modern. SOLD AS IS. ALL BUYERS MUST HAVE A PRE-APPROVAL BEFORE MAKING AN OFFER OR IF CASH OFFER, PROOF OF FUNDS. LISTING AGENT CANNOT SUBMIT OFFERS WITHOUT THIS DOCUMENTATION! BUYER'S AGENT TO VERIFY SQ FT, AGE, ANY HOA OR MONTHLY MAINT. FEES, LOT SIZE AND WHICH UTILITIES ARE AVAILABLE. BUYER'S AGENT TO VERIFY ALL SCHOOL INFO & ALL SEWER AND FLOOD PLAIN INFORMATION.

19. 2011-11-01
    historical 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    North Middletown updated ranch home has 3 or 4 bedrooms, spacious living room, oversized dining room, eat in kitchen and one and a half baths, located near the intersection of Main and Thatchers Mill Road. Vinyl siding, windows appear updated, kitchen and baths are modern. SOLD AS IS. ALL BUYERS MUST HAVE A PRE-APPROVAL BEFORE MAKING AN OFFER OR IF CASH OFFER, PROOF OF FUNDS. LISTING AGENT CANNOT SUBMIT OFFERS WITHOUT THIS DOCUMENTATION! BUYER'S AGENT TO VERIFY SQ FT, AGE, ANY HOA OR MONTHLY MAINT. FEES, LOT SIZE AND WHICH UTILITIES ARE AVAILABLE. BUYER'S AGENT TO VERIFY ALL SCHOOL INFO & ALL SEWER AND FLOOD PLAIN INFORMATION.

20. 2011-08-17
    listed $34,500 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    North Middletown updated ranch home has 3 or 4 bedrooms, spacious living room, oversized dining room, eat in kitchen and one and a half baths, located near the intersection of Main and Thatchers Mill Road. Vinyl siding, windows appear updated, kitchen and baths are modern. SOLD AS IS. ALL BUYERS MUST HAVE A PRE-APPROVAL BEFORE MAKING AN OFFER OR IF CASH OFFER, PROOF OF FUNDS. LISTING AGENT CANNOT SUBMIT OFFERS WITHOUT THIS DOCUMENTATION! BUYER'S AGENT TO VERIFY SQ FT, AGE, ANY HOA OR MONTHLY MAINT. FEES, LOT SIZE AND WHICH UTILITIES ARE AVAILABLE. BUYER'S AGENT TO VERIFY ALL SCHOOL INFO & ALL SEWER AND FLOOD PLAIN INFORMATION.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $600 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,797 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,197/yr (+$100/mo · 199.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$2,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$597
• After-tax cash flow: $1,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bourbon County
• NCES district ID: 2100540
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $47,654
• Composite: 25.13/100
• National rank: #7523
• State rank: #108 of 165 in KY

Livability — North Middletown

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #19598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Middletown, KY
• County: Bourbon County · 18,361 people
• City population: 94
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 18,361
• Household income: $63,333
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 509.0

Population outlook (Bourbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,485 people
• By 2030: 20,559 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 20,491 · +0.0%
• By 2050: 20,065 · -2.1%
• By 2075: 19,173 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 16,646 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bourbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.4% · R 65.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.2pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.0 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+17.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.90%
• Current HPI: 241.9393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+621.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $249,000 ImagineMLS
• 2011-11-17 Sold (MLS) $30,000 ImagineMLS
• 2011-11-01 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2011-08-17 Listed $34,500 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $600 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.