154-158 Main St W · Leola, PA 17540

$495,000

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,300 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1920 0.42 ac lot $150/sqft · 16% below area Est $589k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Investment property that is fully leased and well maintained. It is a purpose built 4 unit dwelling with 2 units on the first floor and 2 units on the second floor. It is located in a nice suburban Leola area.

Key facts

• Fully leased
• 0.42 acre lot
• 12 parking spots

Tags

• FULLY LEASED
• LONG-TERM TENANT OCCUPANCY
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL SETTING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO LANCASTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: All 4 units leased; Total actual rent reported: $44,420

Exterior

• Parking: 12 off-street parking spaces (total 12 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Natural gas hot water; Natural gas heating fuel; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached building; Fee simple ownership; Year built (estimated)
• Construction: Frame construction with metal siding; Other foundation
• Exterior features: No tidal water; Above-grade additional structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four 2-bedroom units (total of 4 units)
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: Estimated living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive. Per door: $454/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $495k).
• Recommended offer: $488k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#646 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conestoga Valley SD (suburban): math 43% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #156 of 539 in PA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,440/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 159% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $139k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($488k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $495k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $487,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.73%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $589,274
• List price: $495,000
• Delta: -16.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $35,538
• Equity at exit: $73,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $180,004
• Equity at exit: $42,799

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17540

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 25.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,440 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$468 /mo · $5,619/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,352
• Net cashflow: $1,817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,140

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,097	-5% $1,957	+0% $1,817	+5% $1,677	+10% $1,537
Rent	-10% $1,309	-5% $1,563	+0% $1,817	+5% $2,072	+10% $2,326
Rate	-1.0pp $2,067	-0.5pp $1,943	base $1,817	+0.5pp $1,689	+1.0pp $1,559

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$6,440
Total (4 units)			$6,440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $495,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $495,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $495,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $495,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $495,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $495,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $495,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $495,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $495,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    listed $495,000 Active 912-char remark
11. 2017-04-30
    historical
12. 2016-05-17
    listed $425,000
13. 2010-01-19
    soldstatus $255,000
14. 2010-01-15
    soldstatus $255,000

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Investment property that is fully leased and well maintained. It is a purpose built 4 unit dwelling with 2 units on the first floor and 2 units on the second floor. It is located in a nice suburban Leola area.

15. 2009-05-07
    listed $309,950

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Investment property that is fully leased and well maintained. It is a purpose built 4 unit dwelling with 2 units on the first floor and 2 units on the second floor. It is located in a nice suburban Leola area.

16. 2004-03-03
    soldstatus $200,000
17. 2004-03-01
    soldstatus $200,000
18. 2004-01-13
    historical
19. 2003-12-22
    listed $215,000
20. 2001-12-31
    soldstatus $175,500
21. 2001-12-28
    soldstatus $175,500
22. 2001-11-15
    historical
23. 2001-10-02
    listed $168,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,619 · $468/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,720 · $560/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,101/yr (+$92/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $77,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$5,619
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,182
• − Management: −$6,182
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable income: $14,694
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,527
• After-tax cash flow: $18,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conestoga Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4206480
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,234
• Composite: 44.15/100
• National rank: #2861
• State rank: #156 of 539 in PA

Livability — Leola

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #6281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leola, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 10,728
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 10,728
• Household income: $91,895
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 159.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · German/W. Germanic 10% Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.94%
• Current HPI: 260.303
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+194.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $495,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-04-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-05-17 Listed $425,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2010-01-15 Sold (MLS) $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-05-07 Listed $309,950 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-01 Sold (MLS) $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-01-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-12-22 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $175,500 Public Records
• 2001-12-28 Sold (MLS) $175,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-11-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-10-02 Listed $168,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,619 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.