27414 W Tonopah Dr · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$410,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,646 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2018 8,541 sqft lot $249/sqft · 8% below area Est $444k · 8% under $180/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Thoughtfully upgraded Hideaway model in Sun City Festival offering 2 bedrooms plus an extended laundry room with extra storage and functionality, along with approximately 1,646 sq ft of comfortable living space. Natural light fills the open great room and dining areas. Kitchen features upgraded cabinetry, granite countertops, large island, walk-in pantry, tile flooring, and plantation shutters. Spacious primary suite offers a relaxing retreat feel with walk-in shower and generous closet space. Guest bath also features a walk-in shower. 4' extended garage with epoxy floors, cabinets, and overhead storage. Backyard designed for relaxed desert living with covered patio, pergola, pavers, and pr

Key facts

• 8,541 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee covering grounds maintenance; Community amenities include pool, community spa (heated), tennis courts, pickleball courts, playground, biking/walking paths, fitness center and golf

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage with extended length, direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; 220V available in kitchen/electric
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile and concrete roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot with east/west exposure; Desert landscaping front and back; Automatic irrigation timers for front and back yards; Wrought iron fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Reverse osmosis water system; 220V circuit in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Low-emissivity, dual-pane, tinted vinyl-frame windows; Fresh air mechanical (energy efficient); Lever door handles; Accessible hallways; Raised toilet in bath; Lever faucets in bath
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hook-up (washer/dryer not included)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Vulture Peak Middle School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 162 students, 51% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 951 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,321 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $443,909
• List price: $410,000
• Delta: -7.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27414 W Tonopah Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,646 (0%)	0mo	$410,000	$249	96
20421 N 275th Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,561 (-5%)	2mo	$480,000	$307	81
20497 N 271st Ave	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,612 (-2%)	3mo	$480,000	$298	71
27301 W Mohawk Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,819 (+10%)	2mo	$390,000	$214	70
27134 W Ross Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	1mo	$387,500	$228	70
21343 N 272nd Ln	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,574 (-4%)	3mo	$412,990	$262	63
20289 N 268th Ave	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,612 (-2%)	2mo	$353,000	$219	57
20344 N Wagner Wash Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,860 (+13%)	3mo	$538,000	$289	56
27361 W Wahalla Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,860 (+13%)	3mo	$455,000	$245	52
27072 W Adam Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,526 (-7%)	3mo	$393,990	$258	50
21290 N 270th Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,524 (-7%)	3mo	$325,000	$213	49
26853 W Irma Ln	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,819 (+10%)	1mo	$390,000	$214	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-82,750
• Equity at exit: $61,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-89,475
• Equity at exit: $35,449

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 951
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,623/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,442

Max offer price $361,267

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-44	-5% $-160	+0% $-276	+5% $-392	+10% $-508
Rent	-10% $-520	-5% $-398	+0% $-276	+5% $-154	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-69	-0.5pp $-172	base $-276	+0.5pp $-382	+1.0pp $-490

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20602 N 274th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$3,500	$2.24	0d	1	0.06mi
27244 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,500	$2.17	45d	1	0.27mi
20311 N 271st Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,000	$1.86	3d	1	0.37mi
27389 W Wahalla Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.5	1717	$3,500	$2.04	0d	1	0.42mi
27013 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	45d	1	0.52mi
26990 W Burnett Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1961	$4,000	$2.04	0d	1	0.53mi
20002 N 269th Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1961	$3,500	$1.78	0d	1	0.58mi
20540 N 268th Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1961	$2,000	$1.02	0d	1	0.67mi
26824 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	2092	$3,500	$1.67	45d	1	0.74mi
26766 W Mohawk Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,500	$1.82	0d	1	0.79mi
26731 W Pontiac Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1373	$1,475	$1.07	4d	1	0.86mi
26881 W Utopia Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1705	$3,500	$2.05	0d	1	0.89mi
26781 W Oraibi Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,000	$1.28	20d	1	0.93mi
20669 N 266th Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	26d	1	1.03mi
26477 W Ross Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,500	$1.09	45d	1	1.16mi
26653 W Firehawk Dr Unit 1302342P Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1883	$2,459	$1.31	3d	1	1.18mi
20493 N 264th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1961	$4,200	$2.14	0d	1	1.20mi
18675 N 268th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1865	$1,799	$0.96	45d	1	1.33mi
26704 W McRae Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	2014	$4,000	$1.99	3d	1	1.36mi
26237 W Matthew Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1646	$3,500	$2.13	0d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $410,000 Active 768-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,623 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,706 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$2,623
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,969
• − Management: −$2,969
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$10,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,531
• After-tax cash flow: $-779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $410,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+32.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,623 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.