1447 Ferndale Ave · Petersburg, VA 23803

$119,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1960 5,797 sqft lot $156/sqft · 22% below area Est $152k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is an adorable 3 bedroom 1 bathroom home with central heat and air and hardwood floors. The electric wiring, plumbing, and bathroom have all been updated and the windows have been replaced. On the outside the front porch is covered, the back deck is just begging for a grill, the yard is fully fenced and shed conveys as-is. Long term Tenant pays all utilities.

Key facts

• Replaced windows
• Central heat and air
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED ELECTRIC WIRING
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• REPLACED WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R-3; Lot is level

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry on level 1; Resale condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding and frame construction with drywall interior; Composition roof; Built previously (actual year built on record)
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Chain link full fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first level; one bedroom leads to the back deck; Wood floors in bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub & shower (first level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $119,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$152,376) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Petersburg City Public School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #131 of 131 in VA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 118 units permitted in Petersburg city in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($826 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Petersburg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $120k implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,707 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.17%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,376
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: -21.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1156 W Wythe St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (+2%)	13mo	$145,000	$185	64
127 Elm St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	755 (-2%)	7mo	$129,950	$172	63
917 Lee Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (0%)	4mo	$80,000	$104	60
1015 Lee Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	792 (+3%)	9mo	$167,500	$211	59
426 S South St	0.75mi	3/1.0	768 (0%)	11mo	$160,000	$208	56
1217 Mckenzie St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-6%)	5mo	$154,500	$215	56
424 Elm St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (+3%)	7mo	$100,000	$126	55
1401 Hanover St	0.67mi	3/2.0	816 (+6%)	2mo	$200,000	$245	53
2115 Dupuy Rd	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (0%)	13mo	$153,000	$199	51
135 Elm St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+12%)	1mo	$82,500	$95	50
529 Selbon Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+4%)	14mo	$184,900	$231	46
503 Beech St	0.55mi	3/2.0	848 (+10%)	15mo	$255,000	$301	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $28,691
• Equity at exit: $43,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $93,599
• Equity at exit: $60,197

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $829/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $944

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $379	-5% $345	+0% $311	+5% $278	+10% $244
Rent	-10% $206	-5% $259	+0% $311	+5% $364	+10% $417
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $342	base $311	+0.5pp $280	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1121 Stainback St Unit 2108 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	24d	1	0.46mi
1121 Stainback St Unit 5202 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	44d	1	0.46mi
1111 Stainback St Apt 2 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	44d	1	0.50mi
408 S West St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	22d	1	0.51mi
929 Farmer St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	24d	1	0.62mi
212 S Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	44d	1	0.66mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 400 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	892	$1,500	$1.68	44d	1	0.67mi
2125 Dupuy Rd Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1063	$1,299	$1.22	2d	1	0.71mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 404 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	863	$1,400	$1.62	44d	1	0.76mi
214 N Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,395	$1.74	2d	11	0.76mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 119 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,399	$1.42	44d	1	0.76mi
214 N Dunlop St Apt 305 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	945	$1,350	$1.43	45d	1	0.76mi
1528 Lincoln St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	673	$895	$1.33	17d	1	0.80mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	20d	2	0.81mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$1,395	$1.87	2d	8	0.81mi
714 High St Apt E Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	924	$1,300	$1.41	22d	1	0.88mi
1131 Hawk St Petersburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	0.96mi
1517 Halifax St Unit 10 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	44d	1	0.99mi
3301 Main St Unit A South Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.0	990	$1,150	$1.16	2d	1	1.00mi
3716 Totty St South Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,700	$1.56	44d	1	1.02mi
1517 Halifax St Unit 15 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	650	$895	$1.38	24d	1	1.02mi
1517 Halifax St Unit 20 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	44d	1	1.02mi
1517 Halifax St Unit 3 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	11d	1	1.02mi
1516 W Clara Dr Unit 8 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	18d	1	1.09mi
325 Brown St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,395	$1.75	15d	9	1.14mi
325 Brown St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,310	$1.69	22d	2	1.14mi
109 Perry St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,577	$2.00	3d	15	1.15mi
1800 Boydton Plank Rd Petersburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	2d	14	1.20mi
16 S Market St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	769	$2,312	$3.01	2d	17	1.25mi
718 Confederate Ave Petersburg, VA	3.0	2.0	852	$1,600	$1.88	2d	1	1.25mi
20900 Riverterrace Rd Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,262	$1.33	2d	4	1.29mi
9 S Market St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	721	$1,350	$1.87	18d	6	1.32mi
310 Saint Luke St Petersburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,491	$1.46	24d	1	1.41mi
217 N Carolina Ave Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	718	$1,025	$1.43	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $119,500 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,500 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   status $119,500 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 366-char remark
7. 2026-05-01
   listed $119,500 Active 366-char remark
8. 2026-03-31
   historical
9. 2026-01-06
   listed $129,950 Active
10. 2025-09-30
    historical
11. 2025-09-24
    price $139,950
12. 2025-07-11
    price $129,950
13. 2025-06-22
    price $149,950
14. 2025-05-31
    price $159,950
15. 2025-04-09
    listed $170,000 Active
16. 2024-12-19
    listed $159,500 Active
17. 2011-09-12
    soldstatus $35,000
18. 2011-09-09
    soldstatus $35,000
19. 2011-08-04
    historical
20. 2010-12-01
    listed $60,000
21. 2010-11-23
    historical
22. 2010-08-17
    listed $59,900
23. 2010-02-12
    soldstatus $15,500
24. 2010-02-04
    historical
25. 2010-02-01
    soldstatus $15,500
26. 2010-01-06
    listed $17,500
27. 2009-12-08
    historical
28. 2009-12-08
    historical
29. 2009-09-01
    soldstatus $72,350
30. 2009-08-27
    listed $19,900
31. 2009-08-27
    listed $19,900
32. 2005-06-21
    soldstatus $72,000
33. 2005-06-20
    soldstatus $72,000
34. 2005-06-20
    soldstatus $72,000
35. 2005-04-17
    listed $51,500
36. 2005-04-17
    listed $51,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$151/yr (+$13/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 40% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$829
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $1,890
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$454
• After-tax cash flow: $3,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petersburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102910
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,362
• Composite: 28.78/100
• National rank: #6670
• State rank: #131 of 131 in VA

Livability — Petersburg

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #17309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petersburg, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 63,420
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Petersburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,488 people
• By 2030: 29,771 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 28,401 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 27,279 · -10.5%
• By 2075: 25,877 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 24,288 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Petersburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+72.8) · D 85.8% · R 13.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 72.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+72.8 2020: D+76.5 2016: D+77.0 2012: D+80.4 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+132.0% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-06-07 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $119,500 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $129,950 CVRMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $139,950 CVRMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $129,950 CVRMLS
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $149,950 CVRMLS
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $159,950 CVRMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $170,000 CVRMLS
• 2024-12-19 Listed $159,500 CVRMLS
• 2011-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2011-09-09 Sold (MLS) $35,000 CVRMLS
• 2011-08-04 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-12-01 Listed $60,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-11-23 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-08-17 Listed $59,900 CVRMLS
• 2010-02-12 Sold (MLS) $15,500 CVRMLS
• 2010-02-04 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records
• 2010-01-06 Listed $17,500 CVRMLS
• 2009-12-08 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-12-08 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,350 Public Records
• 2009-08-27 Listed $19,900 CVRMLS
• 2009-08-27 Listed $19,900 CVRMLS
• 2005-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-20 Sold (MLS) $72,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-06-20 Sold (MLS) $72,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-04-17 Listed $51,500 CVRMLS
• 2005-04-17 Listed $51,500 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $829 · +26.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.