347 Willow Way · Gluckstadt, MS 39046

$309,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,625 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 8,712 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a brand new construction home is a 3 bedroom 2 full bath home. The master bath has a double vanity and spacious closet. With an open floor plan it also has a wet bar in the family room/kitchen area. This new floor plan makes a cozy but roomy home.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

🏗️ New construction. The $309,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,750.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Gluckstadt — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,672 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
351 Willow Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,625 (0%)	1mo	$309,900	$191	99
329 Willow Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-6%)	1mo	$288,000	$189	88
404 Butternut Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+5%)	1mo	$329,900	$193	88
362 Willow Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,715 (+6%)	2mo	$294,999	$172	87
214 Buttonwood Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,603 (-1%)	1mo	$305,000	$190	83
125 Rhodes Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,625 (0%)	1mo	$287,500	$177	78
421 Butternut Dr	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,712 (+5%)	1mo	$333,900	$195	78
151 Western Ridge Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+6%)	2mo	$305,000	$177	58
512 Portner Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+4%)	2mo	$304,999	$181	58
200 Azure Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,828 (+12%)	1mo	$339,000	$185	53
417 Aurora Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+8%)	2mo	$334,000	$190	50
509 Portner Way	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,855 (+14%)	1mo	$359,900	$194	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-56,539
• Equity at exit: $46,036

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-57,301
• Equity at exit: $26,695

Cash invested: $86,450 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,619
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,631/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,848

Max offer price $293,708

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,188
• Closing costs: $9,262
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
317 Willow Way Canton, MS	3.0	3.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	44d	1	0.05mi
502 Black Cherry CV Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1887	$2,600	$1.38	14d	1	0.14mi
231 Buttonwood Ln Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1593	$2,700	$1.69	21d	1	0.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   listed $309,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,295
• − Property taxes: −$4,631
• − Insurance: −$2,341
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,608
• − Management: −$2,608
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,982
• Taxable loss: −$6,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,551
• After-tax cash flow: $304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gluckstadt

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,160

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-02-23 Listed $309,000 MLSU