497 Crosswinds Dr · Lititz, PA 17543

$304,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1985 0.27 ac lot Est $341k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained Rancher on corner lot. Newer heat pump, geothermal water heater, replacement windows and roof. New patio door leads to covered patio and fenced area. Large shed. All appliances included.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-820/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Lititz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#57 in PA, #396 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Warwick SD (suburban): math 42% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #158 of 539 in PA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $305k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,590 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $340,860
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
631 S Broad St	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+12%)	1mo	$379,900	$283	63
421 Laurel Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,229 (+3%)	8mo	$387,000	$315	58
320 S Cedar St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,215 (+2%)	22mo	$346,500	$285	49
705 Woodcrest Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,179 (-1%)	24mo	$331,000	$281	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-53,775
• Equity at exit: $45,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-52,503
• Equity at exit: $26,362

Cash invested: $85,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17543

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,485/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,552

Max offer price $292,835

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,225
• Closing costs: $9,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
446 Crosswinds Dr Lititz, PA	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,250	$1.75	43d	1	0.17mi
446 Crosswinds Dr Lititz, PA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,250	$1.73	13d	1	0.17mi
100 Wickshire Cir Lititz, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$3,688	$3.55	13d	4	0.48mi
100 W Kleine Ln Lititz, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$2,095	$2.40	13d	12	1.12mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-04
   listed $304,900 Active
3. 2026-03-27
   historical $304,900
4. 2018-09-14
   soldstatus $190,000
5. 2018-09-13
   soldstatus $190,000 Closed 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Beautifully maintained Rancher on corner lot. Newer heat pump, geothermal water heater, replacement windows and roof. New patio door leads to covered patio and fenced area. Large shed. All appliances included.

6. 2018-07-30
   historical 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Beautifully maintained Rancher on corner lot. Newer heat pump, geothermal water heater, replacement windows and roof. New patio door leads to covered patio and fenced area. Large shed. All appliances included.

7. 2018-07-19
   listed $195,000 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Beautifully maintained Rancher on corner lot. Newer heat pump, geothermal water heater, replacement windows and roof. New patio door leads to covered patio and fenced area. Large shed. All appliances included.

8. 2012-11-28
   soldstatus $157,000
9. 2012-11-26
   soldstatus $157,000 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   Imaculate rancher on corner lot, maintenance free! New carpet LR, large EIK, Master BR w/ master bath. All appliances stay- W, D, Refrig. Tilt-in windows. Covered patio, extra-wide driveway! Call listing office to show. 717-431-0858

10. 2012-07-16
    listed $157,500 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Imaculate rancher on corner lot, maintenance free! New carpet LR, large EIK, Master BR w/ master bath. All appliances stay- W, D, Refrig. Tilt-in windows. Covered patio, extra-wide driveway! Call listing office to show. 717-431-0858

11. 1989-08-30
    soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,485 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,151 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: +$666/yr (+$56/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,079
• − Property taxes: −$3,485
• − Insurance: −$1,524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,367
• − Management: −$2,367
• − Depreciation: −$8,870
• Taxable loss: −$6,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,464
• After-tax cash flow: $645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warwick SD
• NCES district ID: 4224960
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $63,696
• Composite: 44.03/100
• National rank: #2884
• State rank: #158 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lititz

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #396

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 45,912
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,912
• Household income: $97,435
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1164.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, India, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.22%
• Current HPI: 265.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+254.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $304,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Coming Soon $304,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-13 Sold (MLS) $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-19 Listed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $157,000 Public Records
• 2012-11-26 Sold (MLS) $157,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-07-16 Listed $157,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 1989-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,485 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.