Hibiscus Plan · Willis, TX 77378

$199,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,061 sqft · SingleFamily · 86 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into your dream home with our latest addition to the 30' Smart Series, the Hibiscus floorplan! You'll be greeted by a charming and spacious layout featuring 2 bedrooms, 1 modern bathroom, and a 2-car garage.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 86 days

🏗️ New construction. The $199,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $230,173.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,577 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.85%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,173
• List price: $199,990
• Delta: -13.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Crystal Bay Ln	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+4%)	8mo	$207,990	$189	79
107 S Cochran St	0.67mi	2/1.0	992 (-6%)	10mo	$139,000	$140	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-60,505
• Equity at exit: $34,320

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-91,042
• Equity at exit: $19,901

Cash invested: $64,448 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,207
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,453/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,014

Max offer price $184,706

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-155	-5% $-235	+0% $-314	+5% $-394	+10% $-473
Rent	-10% $-442	-5% $-378	+0% $-314	+5% $-250	+10% $-187
Rate	-1.0pp $-198	-0.5pp $-256	base $-314	+0.5pp $-374	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,543
• Closing costs: $6,905
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	45d	1	0.12mi
104 Runners ST Unit B Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,700	$1.40	6d	1	0.73mi
203 E Watson St Willis, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,063	$1.52	45d	1	0.73mi
104 Turner Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,700	$1.47	45d	1	0.77mi
101 Will St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	958	$1,345	$1.40	13d	1	0.77mi
208 Cemetary Ln Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	45d	1	1.00mi
9700 FM 1097 Rd W Willis, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$1,268	$1.14	0d	6	1.06mi
9706 Farm to Market 1097 Willis, TX	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,030	$0.96	45d	1	1.08mi
100 Lamar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	26d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,990 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,990 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,990 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,990 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,990 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,990 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,990 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,990 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,990 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,990 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,990 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    listed $199,990 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Step into your dream home with our latest addition to the 30' Smart Series, the Hibiscus floorplan! You'll be greeted by a charming and spacious layout featuring 2 bedrooms, 1 modern bathroom, and a 2-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,893
• − Property taxes: −$3,453
• − Insurance: −$1,151
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$6,696
• Taxable loss: −$7,906
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,897
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. A fresh coat of paint and gutter inspection would enhance its curb appeal and property value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Maintaining gutters ensures proper drainage and prevents water damage to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Maintaining gutters ensures proper drainage and prevents water damage to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $199,990 Zillow