1321 Hermes Ave · Covington, KY 41011

$189,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1901 6,851 sqft lot Est $279k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully renovated and move-in ready! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath Covington home features a modern kitchen, updated baths, new flooring, fresh paint, and brand-new AC. Spacious and stylish with nothing to do but move in--turn-key living in a great location close to the highway for easy commuting.

Key facts

• Brand-new ac
• Updated baths
• Fresh paint

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHS
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• BRAND-NEW AC
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Two-story single family house; Entry level information not provided; Facing direction not provided
• Construction: Built in 1901; Aluminum siding; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Wood window frames; Shingle roof; Existing structure; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 137; Lot area about 0.16 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (12 x 11); Bedroom 2 (15 x 9); Bedroom 3 (15 x 7); Bedroom 4 (15 x 7)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath (7 x 7); Bathroom 2 (10 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Has heating
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John G Carlisle Elementary (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #620 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 304 students, 81% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 82% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $189k implies a 627% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.59%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,988
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1545 Holman St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,439 (+4%)	6mo	$200,000	$139	64
1129 Holman St	0.46mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,403 (+1%)	7mo	$230,000	$164	64
1143 Cecelia Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,410 (+2%)	5mo	$302,500	$215	61
1844 Euclid Ave	0.63mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,399 (+1%)	1mo	$294,900	$211	60
1626 Holman St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,372 (-1%)	8mo	$180,000	$131	60
202 W 18th St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,436 (+4%)	4mo	$219,000	$153	56
1735 Woodburn Ave	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,255 (-10%)	1mo	$259,900	$207	52
1617 May St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (+10%)	8mo	$245,000	$160	51
605 Highland Pike	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,353 (-2%)	7mo	$283,500	$210	50
832 Aberdeen Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,490 (+7%)	7mo	$315,000	$211	50
1733 Jefferson Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,203 (-13%)	1mo	$242,000	$201	50
1517 Banklick St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+11%)	4mo	$68,000	$44	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,978
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $45,405
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41011

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,393/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,501

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $750	-5% $697	+0% $643	+5% $590	+10% $536
Rent	-10% $460	-5% $552	+0% $643	+5% $735	+10% $826
Rate	-1.0pp $738	-0.5pp $691	base $643	+0.5pp $594	+1.0pp $545

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1205 Lee St Unit 3 Covington, KY	3.0	2.5	1850	$3,000	$1.62	24d	1	0.34mi
1927 Scott St Apt 1 Covington, KY	3.0	2.0	1865	$2,100	$1.13	20d	1	0.91mi
2307 Center St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1216	$1,950	$1.60	8d	1	0.96mi
2030 Mackoy St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1598	$1,779	$1.11	5d	1	1.08mi
1222 E Henry Clay Ave Fort Wright, KY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,548	$1.29	24d	1	1.09mi
22 Swain Ct Covington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$2,295	$2.41	2d	3	1.44mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-04-22
   listed $189,000 Active
7. 2026-01-24
   historical
8. 2025-10-24
   listed $224,999 Active
9. 2025-10-07
   historical
10. 2025-08-26
    price $239,999
11. 2025-08-12
    listed $249,999 Active
12. 2019-01-16
    soldstatus $26,000
13. 2018-12-14
    soldstatus $26,000
14. 2017-05-10
    soldstatus $25,143
15. 2017-05-10
    listed $27,500
16. 2016-10-21
    listed $49,000
17. 2015-10-01
    historical
18. 2015-04-01
    listed $59,900
19. 2005-06-01
    soldstatus $59,000
20. 2005-06-01
    soldstatus $59,000
21. 2005-05-27
    soldstatus $59,000
22. 2005-02-18
    listed $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,393 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,625 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$232/yr (+$19/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,393
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $4,918
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,180
• After-tax cash flow: $6,540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,981
• Household income: $69,970
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1488.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.20%
• Current HPI: 237.0869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+220.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $189,000 NKMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $224,999 NKMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $239,999 NKMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $249,999 NKMLS
• 2019-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-14 Sold (MLS) $26,000 NKMLS
• 2017-05-10 Listed $27,500 NKMLS
• 2017-05-10 Sold (MLS) $25,143 NKMLS
• 2016-10-21 Listed $49,000 NKMLS
• 2015-10-01 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2015-04-01 Listed $59,900 NKMLS
• 2005-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-27 Sold (MLS) $59,000 NKMLS
• 2005-02-18 Listed $59,000 NKMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,393 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.