10809 SE 129th St · Ocklawaha, FL 34420

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 904 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1984 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Reduction 6/1/2022!!! Fixer Upper mobile home, needs work. 3 Bed/2 Bath, sitting on just under a quarter acre in a very convenient location. The home is on its own land and there is NO HOA OR LOT RENT. Growing area and is a mix of mobile homes and site built homes. Phenomenal opportunity to buy and fix! Mature trees provide excellent shade to the property and there is a mature fruit tree in the back yard. DO NOT ENTER ONTO PROPERTY WITHOUT AN APPOINTMENT.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Near shopping
• No lot rent

Tags

• 0.23-ACRE LOT
• NO HOA
• NO LOT RENT
• FENCED YARD
• MATURE TREES
• NEAR SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R4
• Financial info: Homestead exemption indicated; No lease restrictions reported

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High‑speed internet available; Electricity available and connected; Sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Southeast facing; Residential property
• Construction: Metal frame construction with metal siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 100; Approximately 0.23 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 5.1% in Ocklawaha — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 357 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $100k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.96%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $25,601
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $76,188
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34420

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $653/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11595 SE 129th Pl Ocklawaha, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,700	$1.61	21d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $100,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $653 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$653
• − Insurance: −$1,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,675
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,602
• After-tax cash flow: $6,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocklawaha

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,318
• Population (ZIP): 19,167

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.90%
• Current HPI: 247.3176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+308.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-16 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-16 Sold (MLS) $32,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $38,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-25 Listed $48,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-15 Sold (MLS) $17,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-24 Listed $19,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-27 Sold (MLS) $12,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-11 Listed $15,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-16 Listed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $653 · +52.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.