4735 Victor Path #6 · Hugo, MN 55038

$265,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,530 sqft · Townhouse public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2008 $173/sqft · 19% below area Est $364k · 27% under $486/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rottlund Homes in Victor Gardens now offers a new floorplan the Garrison. This is a 2 bedroom home with a granite island, wood floors in kitchen and powder room, loft and a lower level room. Hurry in before parade, only a few remaining.

Key facts

• $486 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has HOA (Association Minnesota); Monthly association fee; Association amenities include professional management, maintenance of grounds, lawn care, snow removal, shared recreation facility, sewer and water, hazard insurance, fire sprinkler and in-ground sprinkler systems

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tuck-under garage; Asphalt driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Metal and vinyl exterior; Shared below-ground pool; In-ground sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one on upper level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (includes private primary and jetted tub); 1 half bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Tile floors; Indoor sprinkler system; Water softener (owned); Informal dining area; Loft; Den; Community room (shared amenity)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (hookup); Washer included; Dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoska International (math 45% / reading 54%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 554 students, 24% FRL); Central Middle (math 41% / reading 55%, grade C-, #90 of 258 statewide, top 35%, 1,020 students, 24% FRL); White Bear South Campus Senior (math 37%, 1,111 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 282 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $265k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $193,776 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,300
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -27.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-68,346
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-91,464
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55038

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,830/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$486
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,813

Max offer price $193,776

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-253	-5% $-328	+0% $-403	+5% $-478	+10% $-553
Rent	-10% $-585	-5% $-494	+0% $-403	+5% $-312	+10% $-221
Rate	-1.0pp $-270	-0.5pp $-336	base $-403	+0.5pp $-472	+1.0pp $-542

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4631 Rosemary Way Hugo, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,330	$2.42	0d	1	0.28mi
14891 Generation Ave N Hugo, MN	2.0	2.0	2100	$2,197	$1.05	46d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $486 · $5,832/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $265,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $265,000 Active 1254-char remark
18. 2026-05-11
    historical $265,000 1254-char remark
19. 2008-11-26
    soldstatus $147,276 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Rottlund Homes in Victor Gardens now offers a new floorplan the Garrison. This is a 2 bedroom home with a granite island, wood floors in kitchen and powder room, loft and a lower level room. Hurry in before parade, only a few remaining.

20. 2008-11-15
    historical 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Rottlund Homes in Victor Gardens now offers a new floorplan the Garrison. This is a 2 bedroom home with a granite island, wood floors in kitchen and powder room, loft and a lower level room. Hurry in before parade, only a few remaining.

21. 2008-10-05
    listed $147,276 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Rottlund Homes in Victor Gardens now offers a new floorplan the Garrison. This is a 2 bedroom home with a granite island, wood floors in kitchen and powder room, loft and a lower level room. Hurry in before parade, only a few remaining.

22. 2008-10-01
    historical
23. 2008-08-25
    listed $152,276

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,830 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,899 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$69/yr (+$6/mo · 2.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,830
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − HOA: −$5,832
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$9,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,240
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White Bear Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 2742360
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $73,051
• Composite: 45.78/100
• National rank: #2564
• State rank: #83 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hugo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hugo, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,061
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,061
• Household income: $130,931
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.33%
• Current HPI: 223.6524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+74.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $265,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Coming Soon $265,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-26 Sold (MLS) $147,276 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-05 Listed $147,276 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-25 Listed $152,276 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,830 · -7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.