1612 E Mesquite Ln · Victoria, TX 77901

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1954 5,510 sqft lot $96/sqft · 15% below area Est $135k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Investment Opportunity * * Unlock the potential of this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with a versatile loft, perfectly suited for investors or savvy buyers looking to expand their portfolio. Located in an established area of Victoria, this property offers a unique layout and strong rental potential. Inside, you’ll find a functional floor plan with two comfortable bedrooms, a full bath, and a loft space that can serve as a third sleeping area, home office, or bonus room—adding flexibility and value. The home’s character and layout make it appealing for tenants seeking something beyond the standard rental. Whether you’re looking for a long-term rental, a fix-and-hold, or a light renovation project, this property presents a great opportunity to generate income and build equity. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and major roadways, it offers both accessibility and appeal. Don’t miss your chance to invest in a property with potential and versatility—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 5,510 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.84%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,894
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -14.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1612 E Mesquite Ln	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,192 (0%)	0mo	$106,000	$89	100
1310 E Rosebud Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,096 (-8%)	1mo	$130,000	$119	72
2007 Mission Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,168 (-2%)	1mo	$132,000	$113	56
1110 Buena Vista Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,288 (+8%)	4mo	$190,000	$148	54
1304 E Polk Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (+6%)	4mo	$210,000	$166	54
811 E Rosebud Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,035 (-13%)	5mo	$164,000	$158	53
910 E Polk Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,264 (+6%)	4mo	$149,000	$118	52
2308 Walnut Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+11%)	3mo	$199,900	$151	49
1005 Manor Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,322 (+11%)	5mo	$60,000	$45	47
705 E Hiller	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,293 (+8%)	2mo	$92,000	$71	42
1308 E Park Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,352 (+13%)	3mo	$138,000	$102	39
2602 Kay Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+15%)	5mo	$169,900	$124	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-13,756
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-14,415
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,619/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3001 Arroyo Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,330	$1.55	43d	4	0.52mi
1906 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	678	$1,255	$1.85	43d	9	0.62mi
2303 N Louis St Unit 2307 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	820	$850	$1.04	43d	1	0.64mi
2303 N Louis St Unit 2303 Victoria, TX	3.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	43d	1	0.64mi
118 Milann St Unit B Victoria, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,175	$1.26	43d	1	0.78mi
114 Avant Garde Dr Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,595	$1.15	43d	1	0.85mi
1605 Bexar Ave Victoria, TX	3.0	1.0	762	$1,395	$1.83	43d	1	0.87mi
1810 E Colorado St Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,112	$1.23	43d	8	0.95mi
1603 E Brazos St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$975	$1.22	43d	6	0.99mi
111 Monterrey Dr Unit A Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,295	$1.28	43d	1	1.00mi
2601 Leary Ln #14 Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	43d	1	1.04mi
3104 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$975	$1.05	43d	2	1.07mi
903 Linwood Dr Victoria, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$899	$1.28	44d	1	1.10mi
903 Linwood Dr Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	43d	1	1.10mi
903 Linwood Dr Apt 406 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	866	$975	$1.13	43d	1	1.10mi
301 Westwood St Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	987	$1,145	$1.16	43d	1	1.19mi
301 Westwood St Apt D Victoria, TX	2.0	1.5	987	$1,145	$1.16	43d	1	1.19mi
2406 E Mockingbird Ln Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,062	$1.03	43d	4	1.20mi
305 E Sabine St Unit A Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	1224	$1,150	$0.94	43d	1	1.21mi
102 Palmwood Dr Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,045	$0.95	43d	1	1.22mi
203 Palmwood Dr Unit B Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,350	$1.22	43d	1	1.22mi
308 Westwood St Unit D Victoria, TX	2.0	1.5	1010	$1,175	$1.16	43d	1	1.26mi
306 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$1,370	$1.78	43d	4	1.28mi
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 220 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	974	$1,013	$1.04	43d	1	1.32mi
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 209 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	974	$963	$0.99	43d	1	1.32mi
602 Sherwood Dr Unit C Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,250	$1.02	43d	1	1.32mi
2402 N Ben Wilson St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,580	$1.60	43d	20	1.35mi
407 Versailles St Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,200	$1.19	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $115,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $115,000 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $115,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $115,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $115,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $115,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   listed $115,000 Active 1053-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1053 chars)

   * * Investment Opportunity * * Unlock the potential of this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with a versatile loft, perfectly suited for investors or savvy buyers looking to expand their portfolio. Located in an established area of Victoria, this property offers a unique layout and strong rental potential. Inside, you’ll find a functional floor plan with two comfortable bedrooms, a full bath, and a loft space that can serve as a third sleeping area, home office, or bonus room—adding flexibility and value. The home’s character and layout make it appealing for tenants seeking something beyond the standard rental. Whether you’re looking for a long-term rental, a fix-and-hold, or a light renovation project, this property presents a great opportunity to generate income and build equity. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and major roadways, it offers both accessibility and appeal. Don’t miss your chance to invest in a property with potential and versatility—schedule your showing today!

8. 2019-03-26
   historical
9. 2018-10-10
   price $95,000
10. 2018-06-05
    price $99,900
11. 2018-03-28
    price $109,900
12. 2018-03-07
    listed $115,000 Active
13. 2014-10-17
    soldstatus
14. 2012-03-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,619 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$486/yr (+$40/mo · 30.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,619
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$72
• After-tax cash flow: $1,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $115,000 CTXMLS
• 2019-03-26 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2018-10-10 Price Changed $95,000 CTXMLS
• 2018-06-05 Price Changed $99,900 CTXMLS
• 2018-03-28 Price Changed $109,900 CTXMLS
• 2018-03-07 Listed $115,000 CTXMLS
• 2014-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,619 · -23.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.