10105 Lovell Rd · Soddy-Daisy, TN 37379

$226,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1994 Est $303k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Needs a little love and attention but is move in ready. New Flooring could be put in maybe a ac unit. Currently using windows units.

Key facts

• Built 1994
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($705/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.0% in Soddy-Daisy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 334 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $226k implies a 201% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,569 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,072
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
870 Ponderosa Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-8%)	16mo	$225,000	$133	54
10152 Dallas Hollow Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-11%)	3mo	$270,000	$164	49
1136 Green Pond Rd	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,120 (+15%)	17mo	$347,500	$164	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-32,975
• Equity at exit: $33,697

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-24,287
• Equity at exit: $19,540

Cash invested: $63,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37379

• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,185
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $966/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,721

Max offer price $226,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $123	+0% $59	+5% $-5	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-12	+0% $59	+5% $130	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $116	base $59	+0.5pp $0	+1.0pp $-59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,500
• Closing costs: $6,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $226,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $226,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $226,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $226,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $226,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $226,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $226,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $226,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $226,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $226,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $226,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $226,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $226,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $226,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $226,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $226,000 Active
17. 2011-02-24
    soldstatus $75,000
18. 2005-11-14
    listed $85,000
19. 1999-09-29
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $966 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,605 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$639/yr (+$53/mo · 66.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,660
• − Property taxes: −$966
• − Insurance: −$1,130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$6,575
• Taxable loss: −$3,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $1,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

Livability — Soddy-Daisy

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Soddy-Daisy, TN
• County: Hamilton County · 312,777 people
• City population: 29,430
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 29,430
• Household income: $88,875
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 249.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.54%
• Current HPI: 281.6231
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+227.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $226,000 FSBO.com
• 2011-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-14 Listed $85,000 RCAOR
• 1999-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $966 · +22.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.