2801 N Highway A1A · Fort Pierce, FL 34949

$275,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $481k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated townhouse across from the beach

Key facts

• Listed 14 days

Tags

• ACROSS FROM THE BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.7% in Fort Pierce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $275k implies a 511% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.68%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $481,284
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2415 Tamarind Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,150 (+10%)	17mo	$530,000	$461	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,276
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $107,233
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34949

• Home prices YoY: -7.5%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$349 /mo · $4,184/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,496

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $582	-5% $504	+0% $426	+5% $348	+10% $271
Rent	-10% $187	-5% $306	+0% $426	+5% $546	+10% $666
Rate	-1.0pp $565	-0.5pp $496	base $426	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2711 North Highway A1A Unit C Fort Pierce, FL	1.0	1.5	782	$1,850	$2.37	24d	1	0.06mi
2800 N Highway A1A Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1373	$3,972	$2.89	24d	6	0.07mi
2700 N Highway A1A Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1470	$3,750	$2.55	14d	3	0.10mi
3100 North Highway A1A Unit Pco5 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1207	$4,000	$3.31	24d	1	0.16mi
1002 Shorewinds Dr Apt B Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.5	1088	$2,250	$2.07	24d	1	0.21mi
3206 S Lakeview Cir #1105 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	21d	1	0.26mi
3200 N Highway A1A #1208 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$3,200	$3.08	24d	1	0.42mi
3200 N Highway A1A #209 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,800	$2.69	24d	1	0.42mi
3870 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 906 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$3,500	$2.82	24d	1	1.21mi
3870 North Highway A1A Ph 6 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1395	$3,800	$2.72	24d	1	1.22mi
3870 N Highway A1A #202 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1187	$3,000	$2.53	24d	1	1.22mi
3870 N Highway A1A #604 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1187	$5,000	$4.21	24d	1	1.22mi
3870 N Highway A1A #102 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1187	$3,350	$2.82	24d	1	1.22mi
3870 N Highway A1A #304 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1187	$5,500	$4.63	24d	1	1.22mi
3870 N Highway A1A #301 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,600	$2.10	24d	1	1.22mi
3880 N Highway A1A #802 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1405	$4,500	$3.20	24d	1	1.23mi
1630 Seaway Dr #304 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1208	$2,300	$1.90	24d	1	1.29mi
1621 Seaway Dr Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	990	$2,390	$2.41	14d	1	1.36mi
1300 Seaway Dr Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.5–2.5	1079	$1,900	$1.76	14d	2	1.42mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $275,000 Active
2. 1998-06-23
   soldstatus $45,000
3. 1995-01-11
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,184 · $349/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,184 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,184
• − Insurance: −$2,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,914
• − Management: −$2,914
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $839
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$201
• After-tax cash flow: $4,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Pierce

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #3360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 78,556
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,470
• Household income: $94,949
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Italian 5%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.89%
• Current HPI: 601.12
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.64%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+450.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $275,000 FSBO.com
• 1998-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1995-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,184 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.