4570 Mayflower St · Middleburg, FL 32068

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1985 1.14 ac lot Est $215k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BUILDINGS EQUIPPED W/220. CARPORT OR BOAT STORAGE. HARDWOOD FLOORS, NEW CARPET & FRESH PAINT IN A BIG OPEN FLOOR PLAN. NEW PUMP SYSTEM FOR WELL. BERBER CARPET IN BEDROOMS. NEW COUNTER TOPS & SINK IN KITCHEN. WATER SOFT- NER & SATELITE DISH STAY. WASHER, DRYER & REFRIGERATOR. $500 BONUS TO SELLING AGENT W/ACCEPTABLE CONTRACT. **

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Recent renovations
• New flooring

Tags

• OVER 1 ACRE OF LAND
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• RECENT RENOVATIONS
• NEW FLOORING
• FIREPLACE
• LIVING DINING COMBO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community; Unfurnished

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; Property attached; Used as a manufactured single-family residence
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Full yard fencing; Shed(s); Cleared lot with few trees; City street frontage; Dirt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Primary bathroom with tub and shower; Split bedroom layout; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $215k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.37%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,096
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4570 Mayflower St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	1mo	$215,000	$167	99
4542 Mayflower St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-3%)	22mo	$240,000	$192	69
4497 Peppergrass St	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,269 (-2%)	13mo	$200,000	$158	58
48 N Mimosa Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	21mo	$230,000	$171	57
84 N Mimosa Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+1%)	24mo	$150,000	$116	54
4731 Mayflower St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-6%)	11mo	$67,500	$56	43
4598 Calendula Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+13%)	15mo	$230,000	$158	36
2291 Cornel Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-13%)	14mo	$225,000	$201	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,024
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $10,005
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,699

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $391	-5% $330	+0% $269	+5% $208	+10% $148
Rent	-10% $108	-5% $189	+0% $269	+5% $350	+10% $430
Rate	-1.0pp $378	-0.5pp $324	base $269	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4371 Johns Cemetery Rd Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1718	$2,000	$1.16	22d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-04
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-16
   status Active
4. 2026-03-14
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-03-06
   listed $215,000 Active
6. 2003-07-17
   soldstatus $86,400
7. 2003-06-25
   historical 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   BUILDINGS EQUIPPED W/220. CARPORT OR BOAT STORAGE. HARDWOOD FLOORS, NEW CARPET & FRESH PAINT IN A BIG OPEN FLOOR PLAN. NEW PUMP SYSTEM FOR WELL. BERBER CARPET IN BEDROOMS. NEW COUNTER TOPS & SINK IN KITCHEN. WATER SOFT- NER & SATELITE DISH STAY. WASHER, DRYER & REFRIGERATOR. $500 BONUS TO SELLING AGENT W/ACCEPTABLE CONTRACT. **

8. 2003-06-20
   soldstatus $86,400 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   BUILDINGS EQUIPPED W/220. CARPORT OR BOAT STORAGE. HARDWOOD FLOORS, NEW CARPET & FRESH PAINT IN A BIG OPEN FLOOR PLAN. NEW PUMP SYSTEM FOR WELL. BERBER CARPET IN BEDROOMS. NEW COUNTER TOPS & SINK IN KITCHEN. WATER SOFT- NER & SATELITE DISH STAY. WASHER, DRYER & REFRIGERATOR. $500 BONUS TO SELLING AGENT W/ACCEPTABLE CONTRACT. **

9. 2003-01-22
   listed $83,900 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   BUILDINGS EQUIPPED W/220. CARPORT OR BOAT STORAGE. HARDWOOD FLOORS, NEW CARPET & FRESH PAINT IN A BIG OPEN FLOOR PLAN. NEW PUMP SYSTEM FOR WELL. BERBER CARPET IN BEDROOMS. NEW COUNTER TOPS & SINK IN KITCHEN. WATER SOFT- NER & SATELITE DISH STAY. WASHER, DRYER & REFRIGERATOR. $500 BONUS TO SELLING AGENT W/ACCEPTABLE CONTRACT. **

10. 1999-10-29
    soldstatus $51,800
11. 1991-02-07
    soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,498 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$287/yr (+$24/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$75
• After-tax cash flow: $3,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middleburg, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+424.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-04 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-03-14 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $215,000 realMLS
• 2003-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $86,400 Public Records
• 2003-06-25 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2003-06-20 Sold (MLS) $86,400 realMLS
• 2003-01-22 Listed $83,900 realMLS
• 1999-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $51,800 Public Records
• 1991-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,498 · +133.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.