Yucca III G Plan · Gulf Hills, MS 39564

$303,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,851 sqft · SingleFamily · 204 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open floor plan Four bedrooms, two and a half baths Recessed can lighting Double master vanity Separate master shower Walk-in master closet

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Double master vanity
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RECESSED CAN LIGHTING
• DOUBLE MASTER VANITY
• SEPARATE MASTER SHOWER
• WALK-IN MASTER CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $303,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $326,999.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $304k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-723 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: St Martin East Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #18 of 375 statewide, top 5%, 685 students, 100% FRL); St. Martin Middle School (math 44% / reading 39%, grade F, #53 of 179 statewide, top 30%, 995 students, 100% FRL); St Martin High School (math 65% / reading 49%, grade C, #8 of 197 statewide, top 4%, 1,283 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 1063 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $194,521 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.48%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,999
• List price: $303,990
• Delta: -7.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7719 Claymont Cir	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,851 (0%)	2mo	$314,800	$170	93
7725 Claymont Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-0%)	5mo	$302,550	$164	83
7277 Pencarrow Cir	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,986 (+7%)	4mo	$323,151	$163	78
7270 Pencarrow Cir	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,986 (+7%)	5mo	$328,824	$166	77
7621 Falcon Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (+2%)	2mo	$299,995	$159	75
2113 Toulouse St	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,992 (+8%)	2mo	$245,000	$123	70
2121 Beauvoir St	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,697 (-8%)	4mo	$239,000	$141	68
7741 Claymont Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-11%)	3mo	$295,408	$180	68
7258 Pencarrow Cir	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,092 (+13%)	5mo	$325,195	$155	67
7217 Pencarrow Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-11%)	0mo	$288,345	$176	66
2008 Napoleon St	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,697 (-8%)	1mo	$219,000	$129	64
11436 Memphis Cir	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,986 (+7%)	4mo	$323,500	$163	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-102,266
• Equity at exit: $48,757

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-161,138
• Equity at exit: $28,273

Cash invested: $91,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.5 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $300,990 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 145 d
• This list price: 54% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 1063
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,715
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$409 /mo · $4,905/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,861

Max offer price $222,365

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-497	-5% $-610	+0% $-723	+5% $-836	+10% $-949
Rent	-10% $-877	-5% $-800	+0% $-723	+5% $-646	+10% $-569
Rate	-1.0pp $-558	-0.5pp $-640	base $-723	+0.5pp $-808	+1.0pp $-894

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,750
• Closing costs: $9,810
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2416 Felicity St Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	6d	1	0.15mi
2509 Esplanade St Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,350	$1.18	6d	1	0.19mi
2401 Esplanade St Unit B Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,225	$0.98	116d	1	0.25mi
2201 Toulouse St Unit A Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,300	$1.04	6d	1	0.30mi
2109 Napoleon St Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,450	$1.18	6d	1	0.32mi
2221 Paula Cir Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,700	$1.23	6d	1	0.44mi
12916 Rosemont St Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,850	$1.35	5d	1	0.95mi
7205 Greenbriar St Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,550	$1.05	6d	1	1.06mi
11404 Harrison Ct Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,850	$1.36	6d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $303,990 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $303,990 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $303,990 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $303,990 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $303,990 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $303,990 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $303,990 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $303,990 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $303,990 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $303,990 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $303,990 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $303,990 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $303,990 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $303,990 Active 185 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $303,990 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $303,990 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $303,990 Active 180 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $303,990 Active 179 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $303,990 Active 178 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $303,990 Active 177 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $303,990 Active 176 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $303,990 Active 175 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $303,990 Active 174 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $303,990 Active 173 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $303,990 Active 172 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $303,990 Active 171 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $303,990 Active 170 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $303,990 Active 169 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $303,990 Active 168 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $303,990 Active 167 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $303,990 Active 166 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $303,990 Active 165 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $303,990 Active 164 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $303,990 Active 163 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $303,990 Active 162 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $303,990 Active 161 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $303,990 Active 160 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $303,990 Active 159 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $303,990 Active 158 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $303,990 Active 157 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $303,990 Active 156 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $303,990 Active 155 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $303,990 Active 154 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $303,990 Active 153 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $303,990 Active 152 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $303,990 Active 149 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $303,990 Active 148 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $303,990 Active 147 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $303,990 Active 145 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $303,990 Active 143 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,317
• − Property taxes: −$4,905
• − Insurance: −$1,635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − Depreciation: −$9,513
• Taxable loss: −$14,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,543
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,255–$27,765 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Lighting — Modern lighting can improve the home's curb appeal and interior ambiance ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary St Martin East Elementary School B MS #18/375 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle St. Martin Middle School F MS #53/179 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High St Martin High School C MS #8/197 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Gulf Hills

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #7310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Hills, MS
• County: Jackson County · 146,926 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $303,990 Zillow