49 Blanca Ln #32 · Watsonville, CA 95076

$454,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · Manufactured · 102 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $380k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful brand new 2025 Champion manufactured home located in the desirable Meadows Manor Mobile Home Community in Watsonville. This move-in ready home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing plenty of space for comfortable living. Step inside to a bright open-concept floor plan that connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a functional layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, modern cabinetry, and ample counter space, making meal preparation both easy and enjoyable. The spacious primary suite offers a private bathroom, while three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guest

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2025
• Listed 101 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease amount $895

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter and master electric meter; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Manufactured by Clayton (Fairpoint model); Built in 2025; Located in a land-lease community (land lease applies)
• Construction: Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Composition roof; No notable lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Stone countertops; Kitchen open to family/dining area; Living room with unspecified additional features; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups inside the home (inside room/area); 220 volts in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $413k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $413k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.8% in Watsonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#323 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Pajaro Valley Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #43 of 517 in CA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,130/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 3051% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $412,974 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.12%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $380,275
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49 Blanca Ln #523	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-3%)	2mo	$370,000	$287	89
1 Crespi Way #1	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+9%)	23mo	$347,000	$241	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-50,439
• Equity at exit: $67,835

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $35,386
• Equity at exit: $39,336

Cash invested: $127,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95076

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$569 /mo · $6,824/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$867
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,980

Max offer price $454,950

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $433	-5% $276	+0% $118	+5% $-39	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-45	+0% $118	+5% $282	+10% $445
Rate	-1.0pp $348	-0.5pp $234	base $118	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,738
• Closing costs: $13,648
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $454,950 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $454,950 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $454,950 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $454,950 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $454,950 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $454,950 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $454,950 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $454,950 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $454,950 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $454,950 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $454,950 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $454,950 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $454,950 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $454,950 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $454,950 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $454,950 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $454,950 Active 80 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,484
• − Property taxes: −$6,824
• − Insurance: −$2,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,965
• − Management: −$3,965
• − Depreciation: −$13,235
• Taxable loss: −$6,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,486
• After-tax cash flow: $2,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pajaro Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629490
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 52.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 42.00%
• Median HH income: $60,619
• Composite: 64.53/100
• National rank: #537
• State rank: #43 of 517 in CA

Livability — Watsonville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #10972

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment C Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watsonville, CA
• County: Santa Cruz County · 225,113 people
• City population: 82,806
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 82,806
• Household income: $91,099
• Rent vs Own: 43.3% rent · 56.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3051.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 299,046 people
• By 2030: 311,246 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 332,813 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 352,797 · +18.0%
• By 2075: 406,837 · +36.0%
• By 2100: 435,763 · +45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% White 22% Two or more races 19% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 61% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+54.4) · D 75.3% · R 20.9% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 54.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+54.4 2020: D+60.3 2016: D+57.3 2012: D+54.1 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -883.52%
• Current HPI: 273.5604
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.64%
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B