75 Pavey Cir · New Waverly, TX 77358

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1980 0.72 ac lot $72/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ideal location nestled in a quaint, quiet community. Easy commute to I-45, mere minutes to Huntsville or Conroe. This home sits on an over-sized lot, surrounded by shade trees, and backs up to a larger track of land offering tranquility and privacy. 1,800 sq. ft. barndominium awaits your personal touch, the possibilities are limitless. This property boasts a generously sized kitchen with ample storage, a large living room with nicely appointed bedrooms and closet space, along with an indoor laundry room. This property is priced to sell!

Key facts

• Ideal location
• Oversized lot
• Indoor laundry room

Tags

• IDEAL LOCATION
• OVERSIZED LOT
• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN
• AMPLE STORAGE
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $450 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 1.7% in New Waverly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,235 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• New Waverly ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #295 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 258 active listings in the ZIP; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.84%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,990
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -59.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
75 Pavey Cir	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,800 (0%)	0mo	$129,900	$72	100
13 Jack Pate Rd	0.69mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,992 (+11%)	13mo	$497,500	$250	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $7,650
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $43,757
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77358

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,429/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,187

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 542-char remark

   Show marketing remark (542 chars)

   Ideal location nestled in a quaint, quiet community. Easy commute to I-45, mere minutes to Huntsville or Conroe. This home sits on an over-sized lot, surrounded by shade trees, and backs up to a larger track of land offering tranquility and privacy. 1,800 sq. ft. barndominium awaits your personal touch, the possibilities are limitless. This property boasts a generously sized kitchen with ample storage, a large living room with nicely appointed bedrooms and closet space, along with an indoor laundry room. This property is priced to sell!

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 542-char remark

   Show marketing remark (542 chars)

   Ideal location nestled in a quaint, quiet community. Easy commute to I-45, mere minutes to Huntsville or Conroe. This home sits on an over-sized lot, surrounded by shade trees, and backs up to a larger track of land offering tranquility and privacy. 1,800 sq. ft. barndominium awaits your personal touch, the possibilities are limitless. This property boasts a generously sized kitchen with ample storage, a large living room with nicely appointed bedrooms and closet space, along with an indoor laundry room. This property is priced to sell!

3. 2026-01-13
   price $129,900 542-char remark

   Show marketing remark (542 chars)

   Ideal location nestled in a quaint, quiet community. Easy commute to I-45, mere minutes to Huntsville or Conroe. This home sits on an over-sized lot, surrounded by shade trees, and backs up to a larger track of land offering tranquility and privacy. 1,800 sq. ft. barndominium awaits your personal touch, the possibilities are limitless. This property boasts a generously sized kitchen with ample storage, a large living room with nicely appointed bedrooms and closet space, along with an indoor laundry room. This property is priced to sell!

4. 2025-12-17
   listed $134,900 Active 542-char remark

   Show marketing remark (542 chars)

   Ideal location nestled in a quaint, quiet community. Easy commute to I-45, mere minutes to Huntsville or Conroe. This home sits on an over-sized lot, surrounded by shade trees, and backs up to a larger track of land offering tranquility and privacy. 1,800 sq. ft. barndominium awaits your personal touch, the possibilities are limitless. This property boasts a generously sized kitchen with ample storage, a large living room with nicely appointed bedrooms and closet space, along with an indoor laundry room. This property is priced to sell!

5. 2025-07-14
   soldstatus
6. 2022-05-20
   soldstatus
7. 2022-05-19
   soldstatus Sold 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Emerald Wood Ranchettes- situated in an unrestricted neighborhood in New Waverly, offers a convenient location and a home with limitless possibilities. Whether you are an investor looking to fix and hold, or fix and flip, or a buyer looking to refurbish this home to make it their own, this property is priced to sell! Featuring 1800 square feet of living space, this home has a split floorplan, large kitchen, dining room, living room, a full bath, lots of storage, and a single carport. The nearly 3/4-acre lot has several mature trees providing plenty of shade and plenty of room for your pets (no current fence in place). This home is just minutes from I-45 access and about 30 minutes from The Woodlands and North Houston areas. Come and check this property out today.

8. 2022-05-05
   status Pending 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Emerald Wood Ranchettes- situated in an unrestricted neighborhood in New Waverly, offers a convenient location and a home with limitless possibilities. Whether you are an investor looking to fix and hold, or fix and flip, or a buyer looking to refurbish this home to make it their own, this property is priced to sell! Featuring 1800 square feet of living space, this home has a split floorplan, large kitchen, dining room, living room, a full bath, lots of storage, and a single carport. The nearly 3/4-acre lot has several mature trees providing plenty of shade and plenty of room for your pets (no current fence in place). This home is just minutes from I-45 access and about 30 minutes from The Woodlands and North Houston areas. Come and check this property out today.

9. 2022-04-28
   status Option Pending 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Emerald Wood Ranchettes- situated in an unrestricted neighborhood in New Waverly, offers a convenient location and a home with limitless possibilities. Whether you are an investor looking to fix and hold, or fix and flip, or a buyer looking to refurbish this home to make it their own, this property is priced to sell! Featuring 1800 square feet of living space, this home has a split floorplan, large kitchen, dining room, living room, a full bath, lots of storage, and a single carport. The nearly 3/4-acre lot has several mature trees providing plenty of shade and plenty of room for your pets (no current fence in place). This home is just minutes from I-45 access and about 30 minutes from The Woodlands and North Houston areas. Come and check this property out today.

10. 2022-04-15
    listed $149,000 Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Emerald Wood Ranchettes- situated in an unrestricted neighborhood in New Waverly, offers a convenient location and a home with limitless possibilities. Whether you are an investor looking to fix and hold, or fix and flip, or a buyer looking to refurbish this home to make it their own, this property is priced to sell! Featuring 1800 square feet of living space, this home has a split floorplan, large kitchen, dining room, living room, a full bath, lots of storage, and a single carport. The nearly 3/4-acre lot has several mature trees providing plenty of shade and plenty of room for your pets (no current fence in place). This home is just minutes from I-45 access and about 30 minutes from The Woodlands and North Houston areas. Come and check this property out today.

11. 2022-04-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,429 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,429 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,429
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $3,571
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$857
• After-tax cash flow: $4,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Waverly ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832640
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,859
• Composite: 37.21/100
• National rank: #4471
• State rank: #295 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Waverly

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1235
• US rank: #21600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,565

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Romanian 5% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.32%
• Current HPI: 212.4591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $134,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-15 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,429 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.