15708 Plum Brook Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$214,340

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ramsey Floor Plan - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: SBB Management association; Annual association fee of $432

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $214,340 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $277,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $214k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $214,340

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,990
• List price: $214,340
• Delta: -22.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15690 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (0%)	3mo	$277,990	$167	98
15701 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,667 (0%)	1mo	$275,990	$166	98
15712 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+2%)	1mo	$277,990	$163	95
15705 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+2%)	2mo	$279,990	$164	93
15697 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+2%)	2mo	$277,990	$163	93
16423 Blossom Grove Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,793 (+8%)	0mo	$289,900	$162	86
15636 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-7%)	2mo	$279,900	$180	82
15704 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,891 (+13%)	2mo	$287,990	$152	76
15716 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	0mo	$269,990	$183	75
15700 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	1mo	$269,991	$183	75
15713 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+13%)	1mo	$287,990	$152	74
15709 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	1mo	$267,990	$182	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-67,804
• Equity at exit: $41,449

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-104,427
• Equity at exit: $24,035

Cash invested: $77,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$347 /mo · $4,170/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,477

Max offer price $240,470

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,498
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15663 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	1d	1	0.02mi
15793 Bayberry Trace Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1639	$2,240	$1.37	1d	1	0.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $214,340 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,340 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,340 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,340 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   remarks 594-char remark
6. 2026-06-04
   days on marketlisting id $214,340 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on marketlisting id $214,340 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $214,340 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $214,340 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,340 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-05-05
    price $214,340 414-char remark
12. 2026-05-05
    price $214,340 529-char remark
13. 2026-05-01
    price $218,190 414-char remark
14. 2026-04-30
    price $218,190 529-char remark
15. 2026-04-28
    price $221,990 529-char remark
16. 2026-04-28
    price $221,990 414-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    status Active 414-char remark
18. 2026-04-23
    price $275,990 414-char remark
19. 2026-04-23
    status Active 529-char remark
20. 2026-04-20
    status Pending 529-char remark
21. 2026-04-20
    price $275,990 529-char remark
22. 2026-04-19
    historical 414-char remark
23. 2026-04-17
    price $223,990 414-char remark
24. 2026-04-17
    price $223,990 529-char remark
25. 2026-04-14
    price $231,640 414-char remark
26. 2026-04-14
    price $231,640 529-char remark
27. 2026-04-14
    listed $275,990 Active 529-char remark
28. 2026-04-13
    listed $235,990 Active 414-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$4,170
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,063
• − Management: −$2,063
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable loss: −$7,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,917
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in Sweetwater Ridge is in good condition with a modern layout and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Enhances the overall appeal and functionality of the home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Enhances the overall appeal and functionality of the home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $214,340 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $214,340 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $218,190 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $221,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $275,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $223,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $231,640 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $275,990 HARMLS