Is 10619 Dogwood Sky Dr in Beasley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.0% cap rate and $-410/mo modeled cash flow at a $249,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 10619 Dogwood Sky Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 5.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,375/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 37.61

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +7.8/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Appreciation +7.1/10.0
Schools +3.3/10.0
Livability +2.9/5.0
1% rule +2.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Condition / age +2.0/5.0
DSCR +1.9/10.0

$249,990

10619 Dogwood Sky Dr · Beasley, TX 77417

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,593 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition 2-car garage $88/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,535 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation.

Key facts

Open dining area
Front porch
Spacious kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (0.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (5.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $238k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $2,375/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,500 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.77% ✗
Cap rate: 4.96%
Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
DSCR: 0.79
GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $308,501
List price: $249,990
Delta: -15.72%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10715 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+0%)	1mo	$259,990	$163	94
10710 Sage Bend Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+0%)	3mo	$274,990	$172	92
1018 Garnet Rain Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,593 (0%)	1mo	$254,990	$160	79
907 Heaven Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+2%)	1mo	$270,000	$166	79
1006 Blue Stone Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-4%)	2mo	$264,990	$173	74
1110 Garnet Rain Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-4%)	0mo	$246,990	$161	71
10723 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+12%)	2mo	$284,990	$160	69
10735 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+12%)	2mo	$289,990	$163	67
10402 Rocky Trl	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+3%)	0mo	$251,990	$153	66
622 Heaven Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+13%)	0mo	$289,990	$161	64
10411 Birds Nest Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (+5%)	2mo	$256,990	$154	58
10803 Hickory Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+12%)	3mo	$309,900	$174	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 5.7%
Equity multiple: 1.35×
Total profit: $30,411
Equity at exit: $159,186

10-year hold

IRR: 8.3%
Equity multiple: 2.42×
Total profit: $122,493
Equity at exit: $262,597

Cash invested: $86,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 69 active · 21 under contract
Months of supply: 14.3 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $283,900 ($169/sqft)
Median days on market: 97 d
This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +14.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77417

Home prices YoY: 1.2%
Active inventory: 273
Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,375 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,628/yr
Insurance: −$129
Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA: −$88
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
Net cashflow: $-410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,894

Max offer price $249,146

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-197	-5% $-304	+0% $-410	+5% $-517	+10% $-623
Rent	-10% $-598	-5% $-504	+0% $-410	+5% $-316	+10% $-223
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-332	base $-410	+0.5pp $-490	+1.0pp $-571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $77,125
Closing costs: $9,255
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,375	$1.27	0d	1	0.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Emberly Homeowner AssociationCommunity amenities include clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, playground, pickleball, and poolAnnual association fee

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026Built by DR HORTON
Construction: Brick and stone exterior
Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardFenced back yardSubdivision settingAssociation pool

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenDisposalMicrowave
Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedroom and living areas)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityEntrance foyerSolid surface countersKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $249,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $249,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $249,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $249,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $249,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $249,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $249,990 Active 7 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $249,990 Active 6 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $249,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $249,990 Active 2 DOM
2026-07-22

pricedays on marketlisting id $249,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $259,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $259,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $259,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-18

pricedays on market $259,990 Active 65 DOM

Show marketing remark (690 chars)

The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,535 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation.
2026-07-18

days on market $256,990 Active 64 DOM

Show marketing remark (690 chars)

The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,535 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation.
2026-07-16

days on market $256,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $256,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-14

pricedays on market $256,990 Active 61 DOM

Show marketing remark (690 chars)

The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,535 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation.
2026-07-13

days on market $259,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $259,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $259,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $259,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $259,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $259,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $259,990 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $259,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $259,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $259,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-02

pricedays on marketlisting id $259,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $256,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $256,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $256,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $256,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $256,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $256,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-06-24

pricedays on market $256,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $259,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $259,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $259,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $259,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $259,990 Active 7 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $259,990 Active 6 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $259,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-06-10

remarks 699-char remark
2026-06-10

days on marketlisting id $259,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $259,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-07

pricedays on market $259,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $274,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $274,990 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,500
− Mortgage interest: −$17,281
− Property taxes: −$4,628
− Insurance: −$2,340
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
− Management: −$2,280
− HOA: −$1,056
− Depreciation: −$8,975
Taxable loss: −$10,339

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,481
After-tax cash flow: $-2,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $39,825–$71,685 screening

The property requires significant exterior and interior repairs, including painting, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

Major exterior siding — Blurred image, no visible details
Major interior walls — No interior photos provided

Value-add opportunities

Both exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
Both interior painting — Improves interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Beasley El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle George J H F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High B F Terry H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lamar CISD
NCES district ID: 4826580
Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $75,213
Composite: 46.43/100
National rank: #2452
State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Beasley

Score: 57/100
State rank: #1273
US rank: #22130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
Population (ZIP): 3,232
Household income: $60,809
Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
Current HPI: 337.8236
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

2026-07-22 Listed $249,990 HARMLS
2026-07-18 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
2026-07-14 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
2026-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-06-23 Price Changed $256,990 HARMLS
2026-06-09 Listed $259,990 HARMLS
2026-06-06 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
2026-06-05 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
2026-05-22 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
2026-05-14 Listed $290,490 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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