10619 Dogwood Sky Dr · Beasley, TX 77417

$236,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,593 sqft · SingleFamily · 109 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition 2-car garage $88/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,535 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation.

Key facts

• Open dining area
• Front porch
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $236,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $300,469.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-449 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 316 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,660 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.45%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,469
• List price: $236,990
• Delta: -21.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10715 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+0%)	4mo	$259,990	$163	92
1015 Blue Stone Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+2%)	2mo	$249,990	$155	77
1131 Wildflower Way Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (-0%)	0mo	$279,990	$176	77
1018 Garnet Rain Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,593 (0%)	4mo	$254,990	$160	77
1038 Garnet Rain Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,593 (0%)	2mo	$249,990	$157	77
1030 Garnet Rain Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+2%)	3mo	$256,990	$159	74
1110 Garnet Rain Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-4%)	3mo	$246,990	$161	68
10718 Sage Bend Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+12%)	3mo	$271,990	$153	68
10402 Rocky Trl	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+3%)	3mo	$251,990	$153	63
622 Heaven Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+13%)	4mo	$289,990	$161	62
1031 Pecan Harvest Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+12%)	2mo	$304,990	$172	54
10902 Bonfire Trl	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+13%)	2mo	$260,000	$145	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $26,496
• Equity at exit: $155,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $112,566
• Equity at exit: $255,760

Cash invested: $84,131 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 71 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 22.4 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $285,900 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 110 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,507/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,824

Max offer price $235,559

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-241	-5% $-345	+0% $-449	+5% $-552	+10% $-656
Rent	-10% $-627	-5% $-538	+0% $-449	+5% $-359	+10% $-270
Rate	-1.0pp $-297	-0.5pp $-372	base $-449	+0.5pp $-526	+1.0pp $-606

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,117
• Closing costs: $9,014
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10643 Dogwood Sky Dr Beasley, TX	4.0	2.5	2233	$2,200	$0.99	0d	1	0.05mi
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,475	$1.32	0d	1	0.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Emberly Homeowner AssociationCommunity amenities include clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, playground, pickleball, and poolAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026Built by DR HORTON
• Construction: Brick and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardFenced back yardSubdivision settingAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedroom and living areas)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityEntrance foyerSolid surface countersKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $236,990 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $236,990 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $236,990 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   pricestatus $236,990 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 106 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 105 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 103 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 102 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 101 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 100 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 99 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 98 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 97 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 96 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 95 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 94 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 93 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 92 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 91 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 90 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 89 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 88 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 87 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 86 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 85 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 84 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $239,990 Active Under Contract 83 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    status $239,990 Active Under Contract 82 DOM
29. 2026-10-12
    days on market $239,990 Active 82 DOM
30. 2026-10-11
    days on market $239,990 Active 81 DOM
31. 2026-10-10
    days on market $239,990 Active 80 DOM
32. 2026-10-09
    days on market $239,990 Active 79 DOM
33. 2026-10-08
    days on market $239,990 Active 78 DOM
34. 2026-10-07
    days on market $239,990 Active 77 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $239,990 Active 76 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    price $239,990 Active 75 DOM
37. 2026-10-05
    days on market $249,990 Active 75 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 74 DOM
39. 2026-10-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 73 DOM
40. 2026-10-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 72 DOM
41. 2026-10-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 71 DOM
42. 2026-09-30
    days on market $249,990 Active 70 DOM
43. 2026-09-29
    days on market $249,990 Active 69 DOM
44. 2026-09-28
    days on market $249,990 Active 68 DOM
45. 2026-09-27
    days on market $249,990 Active 67 DOM
46. 2026-09-26
    days on market $249,990 Active 66 DOM
47. 2026-09-25
    days on market $249,990 Active 65 DOM
48. 2026-09-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 64 DOM
49. 2026-09-23
    days on market $249,990 Active 63 DOM
50. 2026-09-22
    days on market $249,990 Active 62 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,831
• − Property taxes: −$4,507
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$8,741
• Taxable loss: −$10,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,566
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $39,825–$71,685 screening

The property requires significant exterior and interior repairs, including painting, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Blurred image, no visible details
• Major interior walls — No interior photos provided

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both interior painting — Improves interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Beasley El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle George J H F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High B F Terry H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Beasley

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1273
• US rank: #22130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,232
• Household income: $60,809
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Emberly Homeowner AssociationCommunity amenities include clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, playground, pickleball, and poolAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026Built by DR HORTON
• Construction: Brick and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardFenced back yardSubdivision settingAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedroom and living areas)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityEntrance foyerSolid surface countersKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-22 Listed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-07-18 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-14 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-23 Price Changed $256,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Listed $290,490 Zillow