10619 Dogwood Sky Dr · Kendleton, TX 77417

$259,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,593 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition $88/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

• The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,535 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Open dining area
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot located in a subdivision
• HOA & community: Emberly Homeowner Association; Annual association fee; Community amenities: Clubhouse, Dog Park, Fitness Center, Playground, Pickleball, Pool; Association fee paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (First floor living); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built by D.R. Horton; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick and stone exterior; Year built: 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Breakfast bar; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 16x10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x11; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x11
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric); Central air (Electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Solid surface counters; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $259,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,626.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 6.2% in Kendleton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,500 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,626
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -16.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10710 Sage Bend Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+0%)	1mo	$274,990	$172	93
1027 Rosewood Trl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+2%)	3mo	$313,900	$194	80
1023 Blue Stone Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-1%)	3mo	$309,990	$197	76
1031 Blue Stone Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-1%)	2mo	$307,990	$196	76
1039 Blue Stone Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-1%)	4mo	$307,990	$196	74
10735 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+12%)	0mo	$289,990	$163	69
1062 Blue Stone Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+4%)	2mo	$317,990	$192	64
10419 Birds Nest Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+3%)	4mo	$273,990	$167	59
1031 Rosewood Trl	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+12%)	3mo	$299,900	$169	58
1119 Blue Stone Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (+5%)	4mo	$274,990	$165	57
10606 Crimson Trce	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,826 (+15%)	2mo	$265,000	$145	54
10803 Hickory Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+12%)	2mo	$309,900	$174	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $34,056
• Equity at exit: $160,283

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $130,636
• Equity at exit: $264,406

Cash invested: $86,975 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,659/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,829

Max offer price $258,763

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,657
• Closing costs: $9,319
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,375	$1.27	1d	1	0.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,990 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,990 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,990 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,990 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,990 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $259,990 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $259,990 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $274,990 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,990 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $290,490 Active 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    • The Diana floorplan is a spacious 1,535 sq ft single-story home featuring an inviting front porch that leads into a foyer and a centrally located family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and kitchen, complete with a pantry, center island, and ample counter space. The thoughtfully layout includes 3 bedrooms, with Bedroom 1 offering a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and an adjoining bath with dual sinks. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are positioned near the second full bath for added convenience. A dedicated utility room is conveniently located near the garage entry, while a covered patio at the rear of the home provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,400
• − Property taxes: −$4,659
• − Insurance: −$1,553
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$9,036
• Taxable loss: −$9,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,344
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires significant exterior and interior repairs, including painting, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Blurred image, no visible details
• Major interior walls — No interior photos provided

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both interior painting — Improves interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Blurred image, no visible details	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · No interior photos provided	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both interior painting — Improves interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Listed $290,490 Zillow