3401 Carrabelle Ct · The Villages, FL 32163

$296,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2013 4,088 sqft lot Est $292k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Smart Beautiful Patio Villa in Carrabelle Villas, ideally located just moments from Brownwood Paddock Square. Enjoy the convenience of being within a quick 5-minute golf cart ride to nightly entertainment, dining, and shopping. This home is also close to the Eisenhower Regional Recreation Center, offering endless activities and amenities. This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath villa features a welcoming picket fence and a screened-in front lanai, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. Inside, you’ll find new carpet in both bedrooms and brand-new LVP flooring in the main living area. The primary bedroom includes an en-suite bath with a walk-in shower and a spacious walk-in closet, p

Key facts

• New carpet
• Ensuite bath
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• PATIO VILLA
• SCREENED-IN FRONT LANAI
• NEW CARPET
• BRAND-NEW LVP FLOORING
• ENSUITE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association fee requirement: None
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Carrabelle Villas association (monthly fees noted); Street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available and connected; High-speed internet available; Phone available; Fire hydrant nearby; Underground utilities; Sprinkler meter; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area about 1,156 square feet
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Screened porch; Patio; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Metered sprinkler/irrigation system; Mature landscaping; Paved lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in kitchen; Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $297k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-476 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,741 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,468
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3457 Carrabelle Ct	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	5mo	$285,000	$247	91
3382 Carrabelle Ct	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	12mo	$285,000	$247	88
2621 Margaret Pl	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	20mo	$300,000	$260	79
3442 Carrabelle Ct	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	22mo	$292,000	$253	79
3438 Alwyne Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	19mo	$277,000	$233	75
2573 Lindewood St	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-0%)	17mo	$352,000	$306	75
3090 Loyola Ct	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,156 (0%)	6mo	$265,000	$229	69
3050 Gulfport Ct	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,161 (+0%)	11mo	$369,000	$318	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $131,487
• Equity at exit: $267,471

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $411,328
• Equity at exit: $576,811

Cash invested: $83,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,194 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,557
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,899/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,797

Max offer price $212,741

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-308	-5% $-392	+0% $-476	+5% $-560	+10% $-644
Rent	-10% $-650	-5% $-563	+0% $-476	+5% $-390	+10% $-303
Rate	-1.0pp $-327	-0.5pp $-401	base $-476	+0.5pp $-553	+1.0pp $-632

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,225
• Closing costs: $8,907
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2577 Lindewood St The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1206	$2,495	$2.07	22d	1	0.22mi
6629 Dan DiCiolla Dr Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$1,874	$1.74	22d	44	0.50mi
7011 Homestead Lp Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,469	$1.47	22d	22	0.56mi
3025 Bartow Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$3,500	$2.47	22d	1	0.71mi
5115 Spanish Harbor Dr Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,494	$1.51	22d	29	1.15mi
2910 Monument Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1494	$2,600	$1.74	22d	1	1.25mi
1016 Century Dr Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,399	$1.37	22d	1	1.26mi
4980 Red Maple Ln Unit B1 Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,884	$1.72	22d	1	1.37mi
4980 Red Maple Ln Unit C1 Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,801	$1.25	22d	1	1.37mi
605 Sunnyside Dr Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	22d	1	1.38mi
7730 Wilds Loop Wildwood, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,054	$1.89	22d	28	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $296,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $296,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $296,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $296,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $296,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $296,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $296,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $296,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $296,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $296,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $296,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $296,900 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $296,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $296,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $296,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $296,900 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $296,900
18. 2026-04-30
    listed $306,650 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,899 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,899 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,631
• − Property taxes: −$3,899
• − Insurance: −$1,484
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,106
• − Management: −$2,106
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$8,637
• Taxable loss: −$10,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,636
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $296,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $306,650 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,899 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.