Ash Plan · Plum Grove, TX 77336

$198,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,202 sqft · SingleFamily · 175 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ash is designed to cultivate serenity. The front porch entices you to drink coffee al fresco in the mornings before heading indoors for breakfast. There's plenty of counterspace in the kitchen for you to spread out and chop some veggies for the perfect frittata. You have most of the day free, so why not use that extra time to exercise in the home gym you set up in one of the three bedrooms? Afterward, curl up with your favorite book in the generously sized family room. Guests are coming over for dinner later, but for now you have all the time in the world!

Key facts

• Wide front porch
• Home gym
• Listed 175 days

Tags

• WIDE FRONT PORCH
• PLENTY OF COUNTERSPACE
• HOME GYM
• GENEROUSLY SIZED FAMILY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $198,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $209,540.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,111 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.01%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,540
• List price: $198,990
• Delta: -5.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1242 Minorca St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+7%)	1mo	$210,990	$164	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-24,543
• Equity at exit: $31,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,167
• Equity at exit: $18,117

Cash invested: $58,671 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,143/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,833

Max offer price $209,540

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,385
• Closing costs: $6,286
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.85mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	2d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,990 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,990 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $198,990 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $198,990 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $198,990 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $198,990 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $198,990 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $198,990 Active 166 DOM
9. 2026-04-21
   price $198,990 566-char remark

   Show marketing remark (566 chars)

   The Ash is designed to cultivate serenity. The front porch entices you to drink coffee al fresco in the mornings before heading indoors for breakfast. There's plenty of counterspace in the kitchen for you to spread out and chop some veggies for the perfect frittata. You have most of the day free, so why not use that extra time to exercise in the home gym you set up in one of the three bedrooms? Afterward, curl up with your favorite book in the generously sized family room. Guests are coming over for dinner later, but for now you have all the time in the world!

10. 2025-12-16
    listed $209,900 Active 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    The Ash is designed to cultivate serenity. The front porch entices you to drink coffee al fresco in the mornings before heading indoors for breakfast. There's plenty of counterspace in the kitchen for you to spread out and chop some veggies for the perfect frittata. You have most of the day free, so why not use that extra time to exercise in the home gym you set up in one of the three bedrooms? Afterward, curl up with your favorite book in the generously sized family room. Guests are coming over for dinner later, but for now you have all the time in the world!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,737
• − Property taxes: −$3,143
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − Depreciation: −$6,096
• Taxable loss: −$1,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$400
• After-tax cash flow: $2,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Ash Plan in Plum Grove, TX is in good condition with minimal maintenance required. A fresh coat of paint and some trimming would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Trim bushes — Improves landscaping and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Trim bushes — Improves landscaping and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $198,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Listed $209,900 Zillow