145 Holiday Ln · Auburndale, FL 33823

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1976 3,977 sqft lot $68/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Ariana Shores, a vibrant and active 55+ waterfront community! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an inviting open floor plan designed for comfortable Florida living. The kitchen features a large island with breakfast bar seating and prep space, seamlessly opening to the dining and living areas — perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A bright and spacious Florida room, surrounded by windows, fills the home with natural light and offers flexible space to use as a sitting area, hobby room, office, or additional entertaining space. The primary suite is generously sized and includes a very spacious en-suite bath. The second bedroom is also oversized, wit

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Open floor plan
• Private fishing dock

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND
• FLORIDA ROOM
• MOVE-IN READY
• HEATED COMMUNITY POOL
• PRIVATE FISHING DOCK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Unit listed with association contact Todd Pierce
• Financial info: Total annual fees: $825; Lease/rent restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly HOA $68.75; quarterly fee $206.25); Association requires approval; Association amenities: Clubhouse, Pool, Shuffleboard court; Community features: Buyer approval required, Clubhouse, Golf carts allowed, Pool; Senior community; Pets allowed with limits (max pet weight 20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide); One level; Faces northeast
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Storage; Assigned boat slip; Fishing pier; Skiing allowed; Private maintained asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $130k implies a 271% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.44%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,390
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $35,643
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,749/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Madalyn Ct Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,950	$1.32	14d	1	1.06mi
217 Meadow Vue Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,785	$1.31	23d	1	1.22mi
103 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,810	$1.43	3d	1	1.26mi
161 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,895	$1.57	23d	1	1.29mi
132 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,805	$1.46	3d	1	1.37mi
192 Julie Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,650	$1.47	23d	1	1.42mi
249 Century Blvd Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,350	$1.55	3d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    price $129,900
15. 2026-02-18
    listed $134,900 Active
16. 1996-07-05
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,749 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,749 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,749
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,713
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$651
• After-tax cash flow: $3,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+271.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,749 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.