301 County Road 2734 · Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX 77327

$219,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1988 0.44 ac lot Est $219k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER!! FIXER UPPER ALERT! This two-story, 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom w/metal roof sits on a slab on 3 park-like, fully fenced lots that total just over 1/2 acre. AND that's not all.... It also comes with a 2-car garage & garage studio apartment with full kitchenette and full bathroom. Could be used as a multi-generational living, income producing OR live in it while you are fixing up the house. With No Restrictions the possibilities are endless. **Please note the address according to the county is Cleveland but the home is actually in Rye, TX.

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry with additional upper-level bedrooms; Built in 1988
• Construction: Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision; Lot approximately 0.44 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12.3 x 11.4); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 11.8 x 15.5; 11.7 x 15.4; 11.8 x 10.7)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Seller disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($717/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Big Thicket Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,532 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hardin ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #354 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hardin El (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 607 students, 67% FRL); Hardin J H (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 316 students, 60% FRL); Hardin H S (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 394 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,874 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 County Road 2734	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,904 (0%)	1mo	$219,000	$115	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-29,920
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-13,768
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,723

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $122	+0% $60	+5% $-2	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-11	+0% $60	+5% $131	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $115	base $60	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-07
   listed $219,000 Active
4. 2026-04-07
   historical
5. 2026-01-30
   listed $280,000 Active
6. 2025-08-20
   soldstatus
7. 2025-08-19
   soldstatus Closed 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER!! FIXER UPPER ALERT! This two-story, 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom w/metal roof sits on a slab on 3 park-like, fully fenced lots that total just over 1/2 acre. AND that's not all.... It also comes with a 2-car garage & garage studio apartment with full kitchenette and full bathroom. Could be used as a multi-generational living, income producing OR live in it while you are fixing up the house. With No Restrictions the possibilities are endless. **Please note the address according to the county is Cleveland but the home is actually in Rye, TX.

8. 2025-08-06
   status Pending 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER!! FIXER UPPER ALERT! This two-story, 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom w/metal roof sits on a slab on 3 park-like, fully fenced lots that total just over 1/2 acre. AND that's not all.... It also comes with a 2-car garage & garage studio apartment with full kitchenette and full bathroom. Could be used as a multi-generational living, income producing OR live in it while you are fixing up the house. With No Restrictions the possibilities are endless. **Please note the address according to the county is Cleveland but the home is actually in Rye, TX.

9. 2025-07-12
   price $80,000 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLER!! FIXER UPPER ALERT! This two-story, 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom w/metal roof sits on a slab on 3 park-like, fully fenced lots that total just over 1/2 acre. AND that's not all.... It also comes with a 2-car garage & garage studio apartment with full kitchenette and full bathroom. Could be used as a multi-generational living, income producing OR live in it while you are fixing up the house. With No Restrictions the possibilities are endless. **Please note the address according to the county is Cleveland but the home is actually in Rye, TX.

10. 2025-05-31
    listed $90,000 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!! FIXER UPPER ALERT! This two-story, 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom w/metal roof sits on a slab on 3 park-like, fully fenced lots that total just over 1/2 acre. AND that's not all.... It also comes with a 2-car garage & garage studio apartment with full kitchenette and full bathroom. Could be used as a multi-generational living, income producing OR live in it while you are fixing up the house. With No Restrictions the possibilities are endless. **Please note the address according to the county is Cleveland but the home is actually in Rye, TX.

11. 2025-05-09
    historical $90,000 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!! FIXER UPPER ALERT! This two-story, 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom w/metal roof sits on a slab on 3 park-like, fully fenced lots that total just over 1/2 acre. AND that's not all.... It also comes with a 2-car garage & garage studio apartment with full kitchenette and full bathroom. Could be used as a multi-generational living, income producing OR live in it while you are fixing up the house. With No Restrictions the possibilities are endless. **Please note the address according to the county is Cleveland but the home is actually in Rye, TX.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,549/yr (+$212/mo · 174.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$3,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$735
• After-tax cash flow: $1,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822380
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 35.54/100
• National rank: #4907
• State rank: #354 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Thicket Lake Estates

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1532
• US rank: #26123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+143.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-31 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Coming Soon $90,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · -37.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.