8435 Hornbill Dr · Panama City, FL 32466

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · Land · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 1.06 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to our Beaumont plan. This modern space perfectly blends comfort and style with open concept living throughout the large kitchen, family and dining areas. The kitchen comes equipped with stainless steel appliances, white shaker cabinets and granite countertops. The private owner's suite includes an ensuite bathroom with dual sinks and a walk in closet. The two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Make sure you check out the oversized laundry and covered back porch.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quartz countertops
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• SHAKER CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ELECTRIC SMOOTH TOP RANGE
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Electricity available
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s); Irregular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms included (room level not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Total of 6 rooms; Great room; Dining room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-448 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (32.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Waller Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 439 students, 75% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,922 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.63%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $129,409
• Equity at exit: $261,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $403,604
• Equity at exit: $563,387

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32466

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,537

Max offer price $225,110

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-248	-5% $-348	+0% $-448	+5% $-549	+10% $-649
Rent	-10% $-604	-5% $-526	+0% $-448	+5% $-371	+10% $-293
Rate	-1.0pp $-302	-0.5pp $-375	base $-448	+0.5pp $-524	+1.0pp $-600

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,990 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (521 chars)

   Welcome home to our Beaumont plan. This modern space perfectly blends comfort and style with open concept living throughout the large kitchen, family and dining areas. The kitchen comes equipped with stainless steel appliances, white shaker cabinets and granite countertops. The private owner's suite includes an ensuite bathroom with dual sinks and a walk in closet. The two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Make sure you check out the oversized laundry and covered back porch.

3. 2026-06-19
   listed $289,990 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (521 chars)

   Welcome home to our Beaumont plan. This modern space perfectly blends comfort and style with open concept living throughout the large kitchen, family and dining areas. The kitchen comes equipped with stainless steel appliances, white shaker cabinets and granite countertops. The private owner's suite includes an ensuite bathroom with dual sinks and a walk in closet. The two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Make sure you check out the oversized laundry and covered back porch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$10,630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,551
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 91,445
• Population (ZIP): 5,837

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.68%
• Current HPI: 274.7988
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-18 Listed $289,990 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $660,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $257 · +241.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.