Plan 1243 Plan · Maxwell, TX 78656

$214,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · SingleFamily · 141 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Granite kitchen countertops * Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen breakfast bar * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Spacious living room * Kitchen USB charging port * Eat-in kitchen * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Planned basketball court * Planned park * Planned playground * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to golf courses

Key facts

• Gas range
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 140 days

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• GAS RANGE

🏗️ New construction. The $214,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,984.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-668 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 89d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,807 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.55%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,984
• List price: $214,995
• Delta: -28.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 Tempest Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-1%)	6mo	$238,310	$194	74
505 Cliff Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	6mo	$252,365	$210	71
319 Haywood Mnr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-1%)	4mo	$238,310	$194	71
273 Estallo Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-1%)	7mo	$242,110	$197	69
708 Cliff Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+14%)	0mo	$224,990	$159	68
702 Cliff Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+14%)	2mo	$272,990	$193	65
602 Lagoon Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+14%)	10mo	$283,230	$201	56
627 Alterra Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,207 (-3%)	6mo	$189,990	$157	55
403 Pond Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,412 (+14%)	1mo	$229,066	$162	52
606 Aplite Pass	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+5%)	9mo	$225,000	$172	50
149 Tempest Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,074 (-14%)	9mo	$225,140	$210	50
408 Cliff Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+14%)	10mo	$249,890	$177	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-70,679
• Equity at exit: $72,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-112,305
• Equity at exit: $75,362

Cash invested: $83,996 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 81 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.4 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $262,990 ($192/sqft)
• Median days on market: 137 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +25.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78656

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $203,259

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-461	-5% $-565	+0% $-668	+5% $-772	+10% $-876
Rent	-10% $-809	-5% $-739	+0% $-668	+5% $-598	+10% $-528
Rate	-1.0pp $-517	-0.5pp $-592	base $-668	+0.5pp $-746	+1.0pp $-825

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,996
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
839 Gully St Maxwell, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1105	$1,478	$1.34	0d	111	0.29mi
170 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	184d	1	0.36mi
160 Light Timber Rd Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,800	$1.26	121d	1	0.36mi
202 Peridot Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,649	$1.17	127d	1	0.38mi
202 Peridot Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,649	$1.15	125d	1	0.38mi
704 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1904	$1,824	$0.96	0d	18	0.42mi
274 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,795	$1.22	184d	1	0.45mi
351 Cobb Branch Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1616	$1,843	$1.14	0d	8	0.80mi
242 Surrey Oaks Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,800	$1.26	129d	1	0.83mi
158 Surrey Oaks Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,800	$1.26	129d	1	0.88mi
181 Citrine Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,600	$1.49	10d	1	0.90mi
520 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	130d	1	0.94mi
275 Aplite Pass Maxwell, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,210	$1.28	0d	1	0.94mi
427 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,550	$1.11	127d	1	1.02mi
283 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,609	$1.12	157d	1	1.03mi
258 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,449	$1.00	35d	1	1.04mi
258 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,599	$1.11	69d	1	1.04mi
355 Geode Gln Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,625	$1.30	87d	1	1.06mi
312 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	184d	1	1.07mi
274 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,450	$1.09	69d	1	1.11mi
230 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	158d	1	1.13mi
401 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	10d	1	1.13mi
1563 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	23d	1	1.21mi
147 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,441	$0.99	184d	1	1.21mi
1546 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,850	$1.28	125d	1	1.23mi
177 Gypsum Vly Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,550	$1.21	10d	1	1.23mi
296 Agate Cliff Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,675	$1.18	139d	1	1.23mi
266 Agate Cliff Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,595	$1.25	10d	1	1.25mi
266 Agate Cliff Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,595	$1.26	2d	1	1.25mi
184 Agate Cliff Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,515	$1.04	132d	1	1.29mi
609 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,499	$1.26	0d	1	1.29mi
609 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,575	$1.32	1d	1	1.29mi
5353 Airport Hwy Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,295	$1.21	88d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 403 Aurora Dr, Maxwell TX 78656
• Financial info: List price $220,995

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached space for 2 vehicles (2 total parking spaces, including 2-car garage)
• Home design: Single-family planActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1243

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan 1243 (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $214,995 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $214,995 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $214,995 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $214,995 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $214,995 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $214,995 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $214,995 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $214,995 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $214,995 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $214,995 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $214,995 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $214,995 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $214,995 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $214,995 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $214,995 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $214,995 Active 125 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $214,995 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $214,995 Active 123 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $214,995 Active 122 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $214,995 Active 121 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $214,995 Active 120 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $214,995 Active 119 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $214,995 Active 118 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $214,995 Active 117 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $214,995 Active 116 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $214,995 Active 115 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $214,995 Active 114 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $214,995 Active 113 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $214,995 Active 112 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $214,995 Active 111 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $214,995 Active 110 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $214,995 Active 109 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $214,995 Active 108 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $214,995 Active 107 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $214,995 Active 106 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $214,995 Active 105 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $214,995 Active 104 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $214,995 Active 103 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $214,995 Active 102 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $214,995 Active 101 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $214,995 Active 100 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $214,995 Active 99 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $214,995 Active 97 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $214,995 Active 96 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $214,995 Active 95 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $214,995 Active 94 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $214,995 Active 93 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $214,995 Active 92 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $214,995 Active 91 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $214,995 Active 90 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$13,607
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,266
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,215–$18,645 screening

The home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good exterior, roof, and interior walls/paint. Painting the exterior siding and maintaining the gutters would be the highest-ROI updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Inspect and clean the gutters — Maintaining the gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary George W Carver Early Education Center High Lockhart H S F TX #1,204/1,632 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Maxwell

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 46,557 people
• City population: 2,847
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,847
• Household income: $81,346
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

---

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 21% White 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 403 Aurora Dr, Maxwell TX 78656
• Financial info: List price $220,995

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached space for 2 vehicles (2 total parking spaces, including 2-car garage)
• Home design: Single-family planActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1243

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan 1243 (new construction plan)