411 Cardinal Dr · Chester Gap, VA 22630

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1960 0.46 ac lot $144/sqft · 49% below area Est $366k · 49% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom 1 bath rancher is located in the established community of Point-O-Woods. The home sits on a . 46 Ac. lot that is mostly flat. It is conveniently located to I-66 and is only 4 miles from town, shopping and conveniences, along with enjoying local landmarks like Shenandoah National Park and Skyline Drive. This is the opportunity to put your personal touches into this house to make it the perfect "home". This property is eligible for HomePath financing. First Time Buyers, complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on Homepath website. Attach certificate to offer closing cost assistance. Check HomePath website for more details. Restrictions apply.

Key facts

• Conveniently located
• Mostly flat lot
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• MOSTLY FLAT LOT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.8% in Chester Gap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#264 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $185k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $173,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.92%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,811
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -49.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 Cardinal Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,284 (0%)	1mo	$171,000	$133	99
383 Cardinal Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	16mo	$332,000	$247	74
66 Bluejay Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+9%)	2mo	$440,000	$314	68
302 Summit Point Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-12%)	9mo	$308,000	$273	52
118 Bluebird Way	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,441 (+12%)	20mo	$318,000	$221	44
145 Blue Ridge Rd	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+15%)	23mo	$372,500	$252	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $13,996
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $105,351
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,473

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $619	-5% $567	+0% $515	+5% $462	+10% $410
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $431	+0% $515	+5% $599	+10% $683
Rate	-1.0pp $608	-0.5pp $562	base $515	+0.5pp $467	+1.0pp $418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   This 3 bedroom 1 bath rancher is located in the established community of Point-O-Woods. The home sits on a . 46 Ac. lot that is mostly flat. It is conveniently located to I-66 and is only 4 miles from town, shopping and conveniences, along with enjoying local landmarks like Shenandoah National Park and Skyline Drive. This is the opportunity to put your personal touches into this house to make it the perfect "home". This property is eligible for HomePath financing. First Time Buyers, complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on Homepath website. Attach certificate to offer closing cost assistance. Check HomePath website for more details. Restrictions apply.

2. 2026-04-28
   price $185,000 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   This 3 bedroom 1 bath rancher is located in the established community of Point-O-Woods. The home sits on a . 46 Ac. lot that is mostly flat. It is conveniently located to I-66 and is only 4 miles from town, shopping and conveniences, along with enjoying local landmarks like Shenandoah National Park and Skyline Drive. This is the opportunity to put your personal touches into this house to make it the perfect "home". This property is eligible for HomePath financing. First Time Buyers, complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on Homepath website. Attach certificate to offer closing cost assistance. Check HomePath website for more details. Restrictions apply.

3. 2026-03-27
   price $190,000 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   This 3 bedroom 1 bath rancher is located in the established community of Point-O-Woods. The home sits on a . 46 Ac. lot that is mostly flat. It is conveniently located to I-66 and is only 4 miles from town, shopping and conveniences, along with enjoying local landmarks like Shenandoah National Park and Skyline Drive. This is the opportunity to put your personal touches into this house to make it the perfect "home". This property is eligible for HomePath financing. First Time Buyers, complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on Homepath website. Attach certificate to offer closing cost assistance. Check HomePath website for more details. Restrictions apply.

4. 2026-03-03
   listed $195,000 Active 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   This 3 bedroom 1 bath rancher is located in the established community of Point-O-Woods. The home sits on a . 46 Ac. lot that is mostly flat. It is conveniently located to I-66 and is only 4 miles from town, shopping and conveniences, along with enjoying local landmarks like Shenandoah National Park and Skyline Drive. This is the opportunity to put your personal touches into this house to make it the perfect "home". This property is eligible for HomePath financing. First Time Buyers, complete the HomePath Ready Buyer homeownership course on Homepath website. Attach certificate to offer closing cost assistance. Check HomePath website for more details. Restrictions apply.

5. 1999-07-14
   soldstatus $68,617
6. 1999-07-12
   historical
7. 1998-12-30
   historical
8. 1997-10-22
   listed $72,900
9. 1997-02-20
   listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,050 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$467/yr (+$39/mo · 44.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $3,349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$804
• After-tax cash flow: $5,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chester Gap

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #264
• US rank: #9230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• City population: 859
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+153.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-07-14 Sold (MLS) $68,617 MRIS
• 1999-07-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-12-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 1997-10-22 Listed $72,900 MRIS
• 1997-02-20 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,050 · +71.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.