Arabella II Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$374,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · Townhouse · 290 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This condo is the largest plan in the collection. Near the foyer is a kitchen that leads to a versatile living room and dining space in a shared open design, with access to the lanai for outdoor activities. A private den with endless possibilities sits to the side, while an owner's suite and an additional bedroom offer relaxing escapes within the home.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Living room
• Private den

Tags

• KITCHEN
• LIVING ROOM
• DINING SPACE
• LANAI
• PRIVATE DEN
• OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $374,999

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan (Arabella II); Located at Arabella II Plan, Lakewood Ranch, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,569 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Arabella II)

🏗️ New construction. The $374,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $387,543.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($328/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $342k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1164 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $329,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $387,543
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19007 Scallop Loop #208	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,569 (0%)	2mo	$375,000	$239	84
19007 Scallop Loop #201	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,569 (0%)	2mo	$380,000	$242	68
19007 Scallop Loop #108	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,569 (0%)	2mo	$387,957	$247	68
18923 Scallop Loop #104	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,366 (-13%)	1mo	$350,000	$256	63
19007 Scallop Loop #206	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,366 (-13%)	2mo	$340,000	$249	62
5614 Palmer Cir #104	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,336 (-15%)	1mo	$315,000	$236	47
19007 Scallop Loop #102	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,355 (-14%)	2mo	$334,397	$247	46
19219 Cherrystone Way #101	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,741 (+11%)	2mo	$455,000	$261	44
5548 Palmer Cir #205	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,355 (-14%)	2mo	$370,000	$273	43
18923 Scallop Loop #207	0.32mi	2/20.0	1,355 (-14%)	1mo	$335,000	$247	42
5538 Palmer Cir #104	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,336 (-15%)	1mo	$320,000	$240	41
5528 Palmer Cir #203	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,336 (-15%)	2mo	$389,000	$291	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-71,043
• Equity at exit: $57,784

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-98,200
• Equity at exit: $33,508

Cash invested: $108,512 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1164
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,032
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$484 /mo · $5,813/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$719
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,390

Max offer price $387,543

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $161	+0% $27	+5% $-107	+10% $-241
Rent	-10% $-243	-5% $-108	+0% $27	+5% $163	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $222	-0.5pp $126	base $27	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,886
• Closing costs: $11,626
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19007 Scallop Loop Unit 204 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,400	$1.76	18d	1	0.32mi
18923 Scallop Loop #205 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	5d	1	0.33mi
19015 Scallop Loop Unit 7118 Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,000	$3.82	25d	1	0.33mi
5685 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1329	$3,100	$2.33	25d	1	0.35mi
5720 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	25d	1	0.39mi
5725 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$12,000	$6.49	25d	1	0.39mi
5711 Palmer Cir #206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$3,000	$2.05	25d	1	0.40mi
5674 Palmer Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$3,050	$2.28	5d	2	0.41mi
5674 Palmer Cir #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$3,100	$2.32	25d	1	0.41mi
5664 Palmer Cir #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$3,400	$2.51	25d	1	0.41mi
5721 Palmer Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1452	$3,250	$2.24	25d	2	0.43mi
5710 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$4,500	$3.08	25d	1	0.47mi
5624 Palmer Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$4,875	$3.66	5d	1	0.54mi
19140 Scallop Loop Unit 401 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$2,000	$1.81	25d	1	0.55mi
19140 Scallop Loop Unit 308 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$2,800	$2.15	25d	1	0.55mi
19140 Scallop Loop Unit 102 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,750	$2.38	5d	1	0.55mi
19116 Scallop Loop Unit 403 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,500	$2.23	18d	1	0.57mi
19116 Scallop Loop Unit 203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,195	$1.90	25d	1	0.57mi
19168 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	2061	$4,500	$2.18	25d	1	0.65mi
19023 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	5d	1	0.66mi
19156 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$5,000	$2.23	25d	1	0.66mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$13,000	$5.91	25d	1	0.68mi
5558 Palmer Cir #106 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$6,000	$4.10	25d	1	0.69mi
5548 Palmer Cir #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,200	$1.62	23d	1	0.70mi
5528 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,000	$1.48	18d	1	0.71mi
5577 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,300	$1.47	25d	1	0.74mi
5567 Palmer Cir #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$5,500	$4.12	25d	1	0.76mi
5557 Palmer Cir #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$3,500	$2.58	25d	1	0.77mi
6026 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$12,000	$5.34	25d	1	0.77mi
5537 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$3,200	$2.04	25d	1	0.78mi
18117 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$4,000	$2.24	25d	1	0.80mi
5517 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1329	$4,000	$3.01	25d	1	0.80mi
5805 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$4,250	$2.01	18d	1	0.80mi
5507 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1329	$2,750	$2.07	25d	1	0.81mi
18017 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$6,000	$3.36	25d	1	0.81mi
5815 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2108	$3,500	$1.66	25d	1	0.83mi
17815 Gawthrop Dr #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$7,500	$4.20	25d	1	0.86mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	25d	5	0.86mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$2,200	$1.68	4d	3	0.86mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$1,950	$1.49	18d	6	0.86mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $374,999 Active 290 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,999 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,999 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,999 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,999 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,999 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,999 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $374,999 Active 279 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,999 Active 278 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,999 Active 277 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,999 Active 276 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,999 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,999 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,999 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,999 Active 269 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,708
• − Property taxes: −$5,813
• − Insurance: −$1,938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,288
• − Management: −$3,288
• − Depreciation: −$11,274
• Taxable loss: −$6,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,491
• After-tax cash flow: $1,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B