4273 Possum Hollow Rd · Cosby, TN 37722

$259,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1996 0.80 ac lot $337/sqft · 19% below area Est $320k · 19% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in the foothills of the Great Smoky Mountains, this storybook cabin at 4273 Possum Hollow Rd is the perfect blend of charm, convenience, and mountain living. No steep Mountain roads to get to this lil retreat. Just 23 minutes from Gatlinburg, this 1.5-story getaway feels like it was pulled straight from the pages of your favorite fairytale. From the moment you arrive, you'll be drawn in by its cozy character and peaceful setting. Inside, you'll find a thoughtfully designed layout with 1.5 baths, offering comfort and functionality whether you're looking for a personal retreat, vacation home, or investment property. Situated on 0.8 usable acres, there's plenty of room to enjoy th

Key facts

• Usable acres
• Storybook cabin
• 0.8 acre lot

Tags

• STORYBOOK CABIN
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED LAYOUT
• USABLE ACRES
• 11 MINUTES TO COSBY SCHOOL
• 20 MINUTES TO WALMART

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking at main level
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached property; Single-story entry (main level parking)
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Country setting with seasonal mountain views; Storage structure; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating with propane and electric options; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Four total rooms; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-691 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (38.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (46.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (46.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 2.3% in Cosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cocke County (rural): math 21% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #112 of 139 in TN (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cocke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cocke County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,055 (46.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.44%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,170
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -19.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $97,046
• Equity at exit: $233,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $320,454
• Equity at exit: $503,180

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37722

• Home prices YoY: 27.9%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $158,960

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-512	-5% $-602	+0% $-691	+5% $-781	+10% $-870
Rent	-10% $-801	-5% $-746	+0% $-691	+5% $-636	+10% $-582
Rate	-1.0pp $-561	-0.5pp $-625	base $-691	+0.5pp $-758	+1.0pp $-827

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $259,000 1255-char remark
18. 2026-04-27
    listed $269,000 Active 1255-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$13,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,169
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cocke County
• NCES district ID: 4700750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,486
• Composite: 17.17/100
• National rank: #9109
• State rank: #112 of 139 in TN

Livability — Cosby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,430

Population outlook (Cocke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,586 people
• By 2030: 32,394 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,727 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 27,075 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 22,590 · -32.7%
• By 2100: 19,643 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cocke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.2) · D 15.4% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -68.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.2 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.12%
• Current HPI: 390.2959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $259,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $269,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $502 · +23.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.