2805 Grandbury Grove Rd · Lakeland, FL 33811

$309,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,711 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 2021 6,347 sqft lot $107/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with private views of the backyard preserve. As you enter, you'll be greeted by ceramic tile floors that lead you to an open floor plan, perfect for modern living. NO CDD FEES! The kitchen is a chef's dream with a large center island, closet pantry, and a snack bar sitting area for overflow seating. Includes granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. The family room features a large window that overlooks the serene backyard. The formal dining room seamlessly flows through the kitchen and family room, with sliding glass doors that lead to the lanai area, ideal for outdoor entertaining. The main bedroom is a peaceful retreat wi

Key facts

• Snack bar
• Open floor plan
• Large center island

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• CLOSET PANTRY
• SNACK BAR
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approx. 1,711 (per public records); Total building area approx. 2,267 (per public records); Universal property ID recorded; Property type: Residential
• Financial info: Quarterly association fee includes common area taxes and pool
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Artemis Lifestyle); Monthly HOA approximately $107 (quarterly/other assessments noted); HOA amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, trails; Community features: clubhouse, community mailbox, deed restrictions, fitness center, playground, pool, sidewalks; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 21) with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available and connected; Drip/microhead irrigation system
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story home; South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.15-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio and rear porch; Front porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Blinds; Double pane windows; ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,710 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-67,085
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-100,153
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,667 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$397 /mo · $4,764/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$107
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,852

Max offer price $283,178

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2796 Grandbury Grove Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$3,295	$1.76	11d	1	0.04mi
2853 Grandbury Grove Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,300	$1.34	23d	1	0.09mi
3227 Bayou Bay Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,600	$1.39	3d	1	0.35mi
3344 Mystic Pond Loop Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,000	$1.19	3d	1	0.40mi
2127 Blue Highlands Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,275	$1.22	23d	1	0.59mi
3370 Cup Dr Unit 16 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,975	$1.62	3d	1	1.18mi
3442 Cup Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,975	$1.63	3d	1	1.20mi
3460 Cup Dr Unit 01 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,864	$1.56	10d	1	1.21mi
3323 Songbird Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,600	$1.53	14d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $107 · $1,284/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   price $309,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-01-11
    listed $320,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,764 · $397/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,764 · $397/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$4,764
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − HOA: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$7,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,682
• After-tax cash flow: $-72/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-11 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+125.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,764 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.