402 Oak St · Saginaw, MI 48604

$61,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 787 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1884 3,485 sqft lot Est $60k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3 bed 1 bath Ranch Newly Remodeled Home, perfect for Investor or First Time Home Buyer. New Roof and Water Heater. New Flooring and Paint throughout. Don't miss out on this great opportunity. Agents to verify all information and must be present for all showings and inspections. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• New flooring
• New water heater
• New paint

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: JOHN J WEISS ADD; Cross streets: N. Michigan Ave. & Eddy St.
• Financial info: Annual tax reported
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Slab foundation; Built area above grade: 787 square feet
• Exterior features: Front porch; Lot roughly 60 x 60 (0.08 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $61k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $61k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $422 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $61k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1884 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $60,085 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1884 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.52%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,812
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2529 N BOND St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	763 (-3%)	6mo	$65,000	$85	64
2918 Jackson St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	810 (+3%)	14mo	$39,000	$48	60
920 Cronk Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	714 (-9%)	4mo	$54,500	$76	57
2786 Hermansau Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0	864 (+10%)	22mo	$65,000	$75	53
2312 Durand St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	849 (+8%)	4mo	$24,750	$29	51
1315 Cronk St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	818 (+4%)	15mo	$24,000	$29	49
2558 N Bond St	0.42mi	3/1.0	888 (+13%)	14mo	$80,000	$90	48
3034 N Michigan Ave	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	848 (+8%)	10mo	$105,000	$124	47
2559 N Oakley St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	828 (+5%)	19mo	$65,000	$79	47
2222 Stone St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+10%)	19mo	$29,000	$34	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $24,125
• Equity at exit: $9,095

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $64,801
• Equity at exit: $5,274

Cash invested: $17,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48604

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$320
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $577/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $498

Max offer price $61,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $569	-5% $551	+0% $534	+5% $517	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $441	-5% $488	+0% $534	+5% $580	+10% $627
Rate	-1.0pp $565	-0.5pp $549	base $534	+0.5pp $518	+1.0pp $502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,250
• Closing costs: $1,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $61,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $61,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $61,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $61,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $61,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $61,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $61,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $61,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $61,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $61,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $61,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $61,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $64,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $67,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Nice 3 bed 1 bath Ranch Newly Remodeled Home, perfect for Investor or First Time Home Buyer. New Roof and Water Heater. New Flooring and Paint throughout. Don't miss out on this great opportunity. Agents to verify all information and must be present for all showings and inspections. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-05-20
    listed $67,000 Active 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Nice 3 bed 1 bath Ranch Newly Remodeled Home, perfect for Investor or First Time Home Buyer. New Roof and Water Heater. New Flooring and Paint throughout. Don't miss out on this great opportunity. Agents to verify all information and must be present for all showings and inspections. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-04-30
    historical $900
20. 2026-04-29
    listed $900
21. 2026-04-28
    historical $900
22. 2026-04-02
    price $900
23. 2026-03-21
    price $950
24. 2026-03-18
    listed $900
25. 2025-12-23
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This fixer-upper is located in the heart of Saginaw, 20 minutes away from--everything! Nestled in a cozy neighborhood, this house has a new roof and hot water heater and includes a DOUBLE lot. .. Come take a look!

26. 2025-12-23
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This fixer-upper is located in the heart of Saginaw, 20 minutes away from--everything! Nestled in a cozy neighborhood, this house has a new roof and hot water heater and includes a DOUBLE lot. .. Come take a look!

27. 2025-11-29
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This fixer-upper is located in the heart of Saginaw, 20 minutes away from--everything! Nestled in a cozy neighborhood, this house has a new roof and hot water heater and includes a DOUBLE lot. .. Come take a look!

28. 2025-11-29
    status Pending 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This fixer-upper is located in the heart of Saginaw, 20 minutes away from--everything! Nestled in a cozy neighborhood, this house has a new roof and hot water heater and includes a DOUBLE lot. .. Come take a look!

29. 2025-11-24
    listed $29,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This fixer-upper is located in the heart of Saginaw, 20 minutes away from--everything! Nestled in a cozy neighborhood, this house has a new roof and hot water heater and includes a DOUBLE lot. .. Come take a look!

30. 2025-11-24
    listed $29,900 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! This fixer-upper is located in the heart of Saginaw, 20 minutes away from--everything! Nestled in a cozy neighborhood, this house has a new roof and hot water heater and includes a DOUBLE lot. .. Come take a look!

31. 2025-10-27
    historical
32. 2025-10-27
    historical
33. 2025-08-05
    price $35,000
34. 2025-08-05
    price $35,000
35. 2025-07-17
    listed $45,000 Active
36. 2025-07-17
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $577 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $758 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$181/yr (+$15/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,417
• − Property taxes: −$577
• − Insurance: −$305
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,127
• − Management: −$1,127
• − Depreciation: −$1,775
• Taxable income: $5,759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,382
• After-tax cash flow: $5,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 11,284

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.55%
• Current HPI: 210.5278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+48.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $67,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $67,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-30 Rental Removed $900 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-04-29 Listed for Rent $900 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-04-28 Rental Removed $900 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $900 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $950 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-03-18 Listed for Rent $900 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-12-23 Sold (MLS) $25,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-23 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-24 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $35,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $35,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-17 Listed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-17 Listed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $577 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.