4309 Blair Ave · St. Louis, MO 63107

$120,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1973 6,699 sqft lot Est $202k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity! This single-family home is currently tenant-occupied, offering immediate rental income and a seamless addition to your portfolio. The property features a traditional layout with comfortable living spaces and is situated in a convenient location close to schools, parks, and major highways. Can be sold as a package with 4306 Strodtman, 4337 Strodtman, 1923 Newhouse, 4410 N 19th, 4512 N 19th and 4315 N 9th 4bd/1.5ba. Rent is is $1,700. No seller financing.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Single family home
• Traditional layout

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY HOME
• IMMEDIATE RENTAL INCOME
• TRADITIONAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $120,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$202,376) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bryan Hill Elem. (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 182 students, 98% FRL); Vashon High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 568 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.14%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,376
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4151 Pleasant St	0.41mi	4/1.0	1,148 (-7%)	20mo	$104,900	$91	52
5220 Conde St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+10%)	12mo	$120,000	$88	33
1524 Mallinckrodt St	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,100 (-11%)	22mo	$179,900	$164	23
1522 Mallinckrodt St	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,100 (-11%)	22mo	$179,900	$164	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-387
• Equity at exit: $24,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $21,579
• Equity at exit: $22,444

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63107

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,143 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $284/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $890

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $234	+0% $200	+5% $166	+10% $132
Rent	-10% $110	-5% $155	+0% $200	+5% $245	+10% $290
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $230	base $200	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2046 Obear Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1456	$1,070	$0.73	44d	1	0.34mi
1910 Agnes St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	704	$1,200	$1.70	44d	1	0.74mi
2239 University St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,295	$1.16	12d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-02
   status Active
3. 2025-11-06
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-30
   price $120,000
5. 2025-10-13
   price $130,000
6. 2025-09-29
   listed $140,000 Active
7. 2006-09-29
   soldstatus $85,000
8. 2006-07-19
   soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$880/yr (+$73/mo · 309.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$284
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$101
• After-tax cash flow: $2,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• City population: 283,259
• Population (ZIP): 9,082

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.75%
• Current HPI: 92.7423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+263.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $284 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.