1647 Stonecrest Rd · Flower Mound, TX 76226

$147,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 129 Days on market

Built 2008 6,621 sqft lot $128/sqft · 37% below area Est $233k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity in Argyle

Key facts

• 6,621 sq ft lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 129 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $987 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 2.5% in Flower Mound — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#317 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1130 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($181k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.67%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,233
• List price: $147,500
• Delta: -36.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4152 Thousand Oaks Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	7mo	$240,000	$208	87
6531 Ridgecrest Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,191 (+3%)	9mo	$205,000	$172	82
6635 Oak Ridge Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-8%)	6mo	$150,000	$141	76
6533 Ridgecrest Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,191 (+3%)	18mo	$235,000	$197	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $35,572
• Equity at exit: $21,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $98,430
• Equity at exit: $12,753

Cash invested: $41,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1130
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,260/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $987

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,190

Max offer price $147,500

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,070	-5% $1,029	+0% $987	+5% $945	+10% $903
Rent	-10% $794	-5% $890	+0% $987	+5% $1,083	+10% $1,179
Rate	-1.0pp $1,061	-0.5pp $1,024	base $987	+0.5pp $949	+1.0pp $910

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,875
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $147,500 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,500 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,500 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,500 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,500 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,500 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,500 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,500 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,500 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,500 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $147,500 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,500 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,500 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,500 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,500 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    price $147,500 38-char remark

    Show marketing remark (38 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in Argyle

17. 2026-02-10
    listed $150,000 Active 38-char remark

    Show marketing remark (38 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in Argyle

18. 2023-07-15
    historical
19. 2016-12-19
    soldstatus
20. 2016-12-15
    soldstatus Sold 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Lovely traditional manufactured home with wide open views on large lot. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, Open kitchen with large area for arrangement of choice. Oversized living area , large master bedroom with private bath. Home recently updated with new paint through out, carpet, countertops, floors, and blinds. Decks in front and back yards, shed, corner lot. Ready to move in. Great investment plus Argyle ISD and Liberty Schools!

21. 2016-12-15
    status Pending 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Lovely traditional manufactured home with wide open views on large lot. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, Open kitchen with large area for arrangement of choice. Oversized living area , large master bedroom with private bath. Home recently updated with new paint through out, carpet, countertops, floors, and blinds. Decks in front and back yards, shed, corner lot. Ready to move in. Great investment plus Argyle ISD and Liberty Schools!

22. 2016-12-03
    status Active Option Contract 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Lovely traditional manufactured home with wide open views on large lot. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, Open kitchen with large area for arrangement of choice. Oversized living area , large master bedroom with private bath. Home recently updated with new paint through out, carpet, countertops, floors, and blinds. Decks in front and back yards, shed, corner lot. Ready to move in. Great investment plus Argyle ISD and Liberty Schools!

23. 2016-12-01
    historical 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Lovely traditional manufactured home with wide open views on large lot. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, Open kitchen with large area for arrangement of choice. Oversized living area , large master bedroom with private bath. Home recently updated with new paint through out, carpet, countertops, floors, and blinds. Decks in front and back yards, shed, corner lot. Ready to move in. Great investment plus Argyle ISD and Liberty Schools!

24. 2016-11-18
    listed $64,500 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Lovely traditional manufactured home with wide open views on large lot. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, Open kitchen with large area for arrangement of choice. Oversized living area , large master bedroom with private bath. Home recently updated with new paint through out, carpet, countertops, floors, and blinds. Decks in front and back yards, shed, corner lot. Ready to move in. Great investment plus Argyle ISD and Liberty Schools!

25. 2004-01-21
    soldstatus
26. 2004-01-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,699 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,439/yr (+$120/mo · 114.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$1,260
• − Insurance: −$738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,341
• − Management: −$2,341
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable income: $10,034
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,408
• After-tax cash flow: $9,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argyle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808670
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $108,516
• Composite: 64.16/100
• National rank: #568
• State rank: #8 of 826 in TX

Livability — Flower Mound

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #7074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 75,184
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 40.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+128.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $147,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-15 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2016-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-12-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-12-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-12-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2016-12-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-11-18 Listed $64,500 NTREIS
• 2004-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,260 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.