Fraser Plan · Dundee, FL 33838

$297,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 426 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Breakfast-bar island
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST-BAR ISLAND
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $297,950

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (total)
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Fraser); Listing status: Active
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,700 (living area size provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Fraser (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 426 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $211,663 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 426 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.57%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $137,660
• Equity at exit: $268,417

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $424,828
• Equity at exit: $578,851

Cash invested: $83,426 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,117 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,562
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,469/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,606

Max offer price $241,961

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,488
• Closing costs: $8,938
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
604 Lime Ave Dundee, FL	3.0	3.0	1694	$2,400	$1.42	23d	1	0.08mi
702 Lemon Ave Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,800	$1.50	14d	1	0.18mi
217 Betty Ave S Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	23d	1	0.34mi
443 Sandestin Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	2136	$2,039	$0.95	3d	1	1.01mi
612 Turnberry Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,695	$1.07	23d	1	1.18mi
36 Enclave Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,990	$1.30	23d	1	1.28mi
1207 Coda Ct Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,795	$0.88	14d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,950 Active 426 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,950 Active 425 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,950 Active 424 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,950 Active 423 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,950 Active 421 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $297,950 Active 418 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,950 Active 417 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,950 Active 416 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $297,950 Active 415 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $297,950 Active 412 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $297,950 Active 410 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $297,950 Active 409 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $297,950 Active 408 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,690
• − Property taxes: −$4,469
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − Depreciation: −$8,668
• Taxable loss: −$9,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,395
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B