6615 Spanish Lakes Blvd · Vero Beach South, FL 34951

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 181 Days on market

Built 1986

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This lovely, fully furnished 2-bed, 2-bath home is located in the highly desired Spanish Lakes Fairways 55+ golf course community. Many new updates, including a new metal roof in 2024, new A/C with a transferable warranty, and vinyl plank floors. Spacious Florida room with French doors leading into this beautifully furnished home, where you will find an open-concept living room, kitchen with an island, and dining room. The master bedroom has large closets and an en-suite bathroom. A golf cart is included with this home. Land lease fee of $865.29 a month, which consists of a private golf course, with no fees to play, two pools, pickleball, tennis, bocce, shuffleboard, rec center, lawn mainte

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Florida room
• New a/c

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW A/C
• VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• FLORIDA ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• GOLF CART INCLUDED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed (pet restrictions possible)
• HOA & community: Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, bocce ball, billiard room, library, community room, dog park, workshop area and golf course; Association covers grounds maintenance, trash and golf; Has association; Senior community

Exterior

• Utilities: Three phase electric; Public sewer; Cable available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Resale condition; Faces east
• Construction: Modular construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 4.3% in Vero Beach South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#163 in FL, #2,445 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.89%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $27,600
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6539 Spanish Lakes Blvd	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,200 (0%)	3mo	$24,987	$21	93
14461 Azucena Ct	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+8%)	11mo	$15,000	$12	67
13981 Gorrion Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-4%)	1mo	$48,500	$42	65
14297 Zorzal Ave	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,352 (+13%)	13mo	$48,195	$36	51
14063 Cancun Ave	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-5%)	24mo	$20,495	$18	48
6799 Dulce Real Ave	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,360 (+13%)	18mo	$31,000	$23	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $58,711
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.48×
• Total profit: $143,297
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $1,122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,177	-5% $1,150	+0% $1,122	+5% $1,095	+10% $1,068
Rent	-10% $955	-5% $1,039	+0% $1,122	+5% $1,206	+10% $1,289
Rate	-1.0pp $1,162	-0.5pp $1,142	base $1,122	+0.5pp $1,102	+1.0pp $1,081

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6765 Spanish Lakes Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,500	$1.83	24d	1	0.17mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $79,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $79,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2025-12-03
   listed $79,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,027
• − Management: −$2,027
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $12,983
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,116
• After-tax cash flow: $10,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Beach South

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #2445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Listed $79,000 Beaches MLS