12044 Royal Rd Spc 18 · Winter Gardens, CA 92021

$109,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 746 sqft · Manufactured public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1998 7.75 ac lot Est $126k · 14% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Westward Ho Manor Mobile Home Community, an all-ages park offering great amenities and convenience. This single-wide mobile home, built in 1998, features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with an open-concept layout that creates a comfortable and functional living space. The home is original, offering a great opportunity for a buyer to personalize and add value. The kitchen includes appliances and opens to the main living area, making it ideal for everyday living. Additional features include an indoor laundry room, central heating, a storage shed, and two parking spaces. The current space rent is approximately $1,350 per month. The community offers excellent amenities including a clubhou

Key facts

• Central heating
• Clubhouse
• Two parking spaces

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• CENTRAL HEATING
• STORAGE SHED
• TWO PARKING SPACES
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in a mobile home community (Westward Ho Manor Mobile Home Community)

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces; Two carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story manufactured/mobile home; Entry at front
• Construction: Mobile home dimensions approximately 13 ft by 56 ft; Single-story
• Exterior features: Community pool; Lot is level/flat; Has a view; One shed on the property; Located in Westward Ho Manor Mobile Home Community; Curbs in the community

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Front entry on one level; All bedrooms on the same level; Has a spa
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $975 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 2.7% in Winter Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#515 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,190 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.32%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,074
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12044 Royal Rd #93	0.00mi	2/1.0	800 (+7%)	4mo	$135,000	$169	85
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd Spc 8	0.36mi	2/1.0	770 (+3%)	4mo	$130,000	$169	75
12044 Royal Rd #51	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (+5%)	20mo	$165,000	$210	75
12044 Royal Rd	0.06mi	2/1.0	800 (+7%)	20mo	$130,000	$163	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $38,302
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $89,652
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,080 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $616/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $975

Break-even live

Break-even rent $846

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1641 Greenfield Dr Unit 1641 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,900	$3.17	2d	1	0.93mi
1546 Broadway El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,745	$2.79	2d	1	1.17mi
1294 N Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$2,128	$2.84	2d	8	1.37mi
425 E Bradley Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	771	$2,350	$3.05	2d	13	1.37mi
1005 N Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,195	$2.93	2d	1	1.47mi
310 E Bradley Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	664	$2,050	$3.09	2d	1	1.49mi
1037 Peach Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	560	$1,694	$3.03	2d	4	1.50mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricestatus $109,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-05-23
   status Pending Sale
8. 2026-05-22
   status Active
9. 2026-04-14
   status Pending Sale
10. 2026-03-19
    price $105,000
11. 2026-01-05
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $616 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $828 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$212/yr (+$18/mo · 34.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$616
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $10,527
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,527
• After-tax cash flow: $9,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620790
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,574
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #6453
• State rank: #480 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Winter Gardens

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #17448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Gardens, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $105,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $119,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2013): $616 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.