Raven Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$696,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,239 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single-story featuring 3.5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, study, breakfast area, a large, covered patio, and a side 3-car garage. The foyer leads to a very open concept with a large family room overlooking the oversized covered patio. The kitchen is spectacular with a large breakfast area and a beautiful kitchen island. The master bedroom is separated from all other rooms for a private feel. All bedrooms feature walk-in closets. All secondary bedrooms are near the game room, a perfect gathering area.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Walk-in closets
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN CONCEPT
• BREAKFAST AREA
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available (listing active)

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan named Raven; Single-family plan (Raven)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3,239 (per plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based layout)

🏗️ New construction. The $696,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $690,959.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $697k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($496/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $697k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $610k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $610k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.7% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 441 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($676k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $609,673 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $690,959
• List price: $696,990
• Delta: 0.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
250 Matthew Path	0.48mi	4/3.5	3,325 (+3%)	1mo	$699,900	$210	72
235 Poe	0.48mi	4/3.5	3,101 (-4%)	5mo	$599,900	$193	66
239 Sittre Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	3,324 (+3%)	0mo	$635,000	$191	66
534 Englewood	0.39mi	4/3.5	3,568 (+10%)	6mo	$669,990	$188	60
936 County Road 375	0.48mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,023 (-7%)	1mo	$768,000	$254	59
267 Sweet Rose	0.72mi	4/3.5	3,094 (-4%)	1mo	$549,000	$177	58
165 Poe Pkwy	0.41mi	4/3.5	2,849 (-12%)	4mo	$599,900	$211	57
280 Sittre Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	3,003 (-7%)	4mo	$545,000	$181	54
287 Poe Pkwy	0.54mi	4/3.5	3,568 (+10%)	7mo	$669,990	$188	52
229 Raven Rd	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,047 (-6%)	6mo	$761,174	$250	50
264 Storm Way	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,568 (+10%)	1mo	$695,990	$195	49
183 Poe Pkwy	0.43mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,716 (+15%)	4mo	$639,990	$172	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-109,239
• Equity at exit: $103,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-91,359
• Equity at exit: $59,742

Cash invested: $193,469 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,623
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$864 /mo · $10,364/yr
• Insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,280
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,044

Max offer price $690,959

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $172,740
• Closing costs: $20,729
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	4d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	44d	1	0.88mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	44d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $696,990 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $696,990 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $696,990 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $696,990 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $696,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $696,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $696,990 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $696,990 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $696,990 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $696,990 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $696,990 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $696,990 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $696,990 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $696,990 Active 497-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,704
• − Property taxes: −$10,364
• − Insurance: −$3,455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,853
• − Management: −$5,853
• − Depreciation: −$20,101
• Taxable loss: −$11,169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,681
• After-tax cash flow: $3,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B